Köln against Union is a possession side with no striker facing a deep block that is happy to give up the ball. Both teams have settled into tight, low-chance shapes since September, and the cup format takes away any reason to chase late. This looks like a match of blocked shots, cleared crosses and very few clear chances.
Köln under Rene Wagner have the ball at home, but all three of their strikers are out: Dallinga, Rondic and Ache. Without a nine, their chances come from El Mala, Bülter, Maina and Johannesson cutting inside. That has been a thin attack. It produced 1.22 xG in a 0-0 with Schalke despite 62% of the ball, and 0.65 at Frankfurt. They have also lost Skhiri in the pivot.
Union under Lustrinelli have had between 34 and 43 percent of the ball in every October league game. They drew 0-0 with Dortmund, beat Elversberg 1-0 with an 81st-minute goal, and drew 1-1 at Augsburg with ten men. Their goals arrive late and from set pieces through Haberer and Rothe, not from sustained pressure.
The key matchup is Köln's forwards against Union's patched centre-backs, Querfeld and van den Bosch. On paper that is a weakness, since Markgraf and Nsoki are both out. But Köln have no target man to aim crosses at, so the likely picture is Union blocking and clearing, as they did when they blocked six of Elversberg's seven shots.
In October, these two sides' six league games produced 0, 1, 3, 0, 1 and 2 goals, and first halves have been nearly empty at both ends. The big September scores came before both teams found these shapes, and before Köln lost their strikers. Late on, a level score means extra time rather than defeat, so neither side has to throw bodies forward.
That's why I expect a low-scoring cup tie and am siding with few goals here.
