Two road matches where the visitor holds the better chance numbers against a home side that defends low and scores rarely. Both home teams have short attacks and real absences, and both games can stay level, which is why the structure matters more than the table.
Espanyol average under one expected goal and their forwards have been out for five straight games, yet they still won at Villarreal on a tiny chance count. Deportivo keep around half the ball, win more corners, and have the better chance difference over their recent games, though a forward is doubtful. I expect Deportivo to out-shoot a block that gives up shots, and that's why I'm siding with Deportivo.
Osasuna are a low-possession team that concede more shots than they take, missing a centre-back and two creative players. Athletic take far more shots over nine games and were comfortable in their recent league wins, though their away form is patchy and their top scorer is out. Osasuna's best chance is a set piece or penalty. I'm siding with Athletic to have the better of a tight match.
