Neither club has anything left to play for on Decision Day, but they arrive in very different shape. DC United have lost five in a row and now lose players at both ends of the pitch. New York City still have their two main creators. This match comes down to whether NYC's possession can finally turn into goals against a back line that has never played together.
DC play a deep 4-4-2 and had around 42 percent of the ball over their last ten. They conceded in every one of those games and conceded twice or more in eight. Their attack relied on Baribo and Munteanu, who scored more than half of DC's league goals between them. Munteanu has been out since early October, and Baribo missed the last two matches, in which DC managed two and four shots on target and one goal.
The new problems are at the back. Rowles is suspended, Bartlett is questionable with a lower-leg injury, and Nealis has only been coming on late in recent games. Johnson is also out, so Bono is in goal behind a new centre-back pair. Bartlett's absence also removes DC's main threat from set pieces.
NYC's issue has been finishing, not creating: plenty of chances at Orlando, Miami and Chicago for very few goals. Fernandez and Ojeda are both available, though, and they get to work on the space between two centre-backs with no time together. Even if DC score first from a set piece, their record shows they keep conceding.
I expect NYC to have most of the ball, DC to sit deep, and NYC's creators to find the gaps in a patched-up defence as the game goes on. That's why I'm siding with New York City to win.
