Cardiff and Burnley should contest the first pass as much as the final touch. Cardiff's pressure can turn loose clearances into repeat deliveries, while Burnley have a direct route through Vardy and Ramazani. West Brom and Millwall have a similar contest between early pressure and the first direct outlet. The decisive chances there should come from second box contacts and the space around Millwall's replacement right back.
Cardiff disrupted Birmingham's buildup, and Robertson, Tanner and Bagan can keep feeding Moylan and Salech after the first clearance. Burnley struggled with second balls at Lincoln and produced little sustained shooting at QPR despite finding a goal. Robertson played the full latest Cardiff match, while Ng's fitness is uncertain; Burnley's possible Amdouni return does not remove the first-pass and clearance matchup. I expect Cardiff to press early and keep finding receivers at home. That's why I'm siding with Cardiff.
West Brom's Price can find Morgan in the channel beside Osei-Tutu, with Myhre and Heggebø able to receive the next delivery. Millwall can go directly to Dykes or Lisbie, but their last two away games produced only three shots on target between them. Osei-Tutu has actually filled in at right back, and Metcalfe missed Millwall's latest away match; the projected starting teams remain unconfirmed. West Brom should get more than one clean look from their pressure and recovered balls. That's why I'm siding with West Brom.
