Two different shapes of match here: one where a side with almost no attack hosts a visitor that only needs a single goal, and one where two patched defences meet.
Parma have scored under one goal a game across their last ten, their expected goals sit under 1.2 in eight of nine matches, and they hand out about 18 shots a game. Their 3-0 win at Atalanta came from a 0.36 to 2.80 expected-goals game, so it reads as a result well above the content, not a new attack.
Bologna have won four of their last five league games, and the four players listed out (Holm, De Silvestri, Enem, Piccoli) were already missing for the recent wins at Milan and over Monza. Bologna also come in with about a week of rest against Parma's five days. Their shot volume is modest, so the edge is shot quality against a side that struggles to score. That's why I'm siding with Bologna to win.
Stuttgart against Werder Bremen is the opposite kind of game. Stuttgart's centre-backs Zagadou and Diehl have been out since mid-October, and they leaked an early goal at Galatasaray on a short turnaround. Bremen are missing Agu, N'Diaye and Stark at the back, and still scored at least twice in each of their last five with their forwards out.
Stuttgart keep the ball and create around two expected goals a game, and Bremen live on direct attacks and penalties. With both back lines patched, I expect goals at both ends and I'm backing the game to be open and high scoring.
