Two matches where the home side's table position and the actual chance numbers point in different directions, and where one team's shape has a visible hole to attack. In both, the side with the heavier pre-match facts is the one playing the more direct, higher-volume game.
Birmingham against Swansea: Birmingham sit third and have won seven of their last ten, with a home record of three wins and four draws and no defeats. They win through volume and shots on target, and they get more efforts on target than Swansea manage. Swansea hold the ball, but their back line is thin: Burgess and Ronald are listed out or doubtful, and they conceded five at QPR and three at Portsmouth in their last two away games. Birmingham's own midfield absences have been there for six matches, so the form already includes them. Swansea can still score from a possession spell and a draw is a live outcome, which is why I want Birmingham to win at home with the draw simply handing the stake back.
Parma against Bologna: the candidate label said Parma were the form side, but the dated rows say the opposite. Parma are fifteenth, give up around eighteen shots and almost two expected goals a game, and their last win at Atalanta came from six shots against twenty. Bologna are on a run of wins, have won away at Milan and Cagliari, and their right-back and forward absences have been in place for several games already. Parma will sit deep and counter, so the game should be played mostly in their half in spells, with Bologna's wide players finding the better chances. That's why I'm siding with Bologna to win away.
