Derby are the side in trouble here, not Norwich. They sit 23rd with one league win, score less than a goal a game, and come into this match with a back line rebuilt by injuries and a winger expected to play at full-back. Norwich keep the ball, attack wide and have not drawn once in thirteen league games. The mesh points at Derby's weakest unit and asks whether Derby can score enough to answer.
Under Eustace, Derby have averaged about one expected goal and under a goal scored per game over their last ten, with only two goals in their last four at home. Their route is crosses to Morris and late runs from midfield. At the back, injuries to Forsyth, Taylor, Langas, Cashin and Murkin have left them patching things up, and they gave up big chance totals at Sheffield United and at Millwall, where they were three down inside seventeen minutes.
The key matchup is Musaba and Brooks against Derby's full-backs. Johnston was beaten for Millwall's opener, and Hedges is a winger by trade. Kvistgaarden drops in to link play, as he did when assisting both late goals against Watford, and Maghoma arrives from midfield. Norwich also win plenty of corners. Derby's best answer is Morris in the air or Brewster running behind Cordoba, and that is a real route, but it is a single one.
The new absence is in Derby's midfield. Ozoh went off injured at Millwall and is expected to miss out, so the slower Mowatt has to screen the space Maghoma attacks. Clarke's return to training helps Derby's centre, but it does nothing for the full-back problem or for their thin attack.
I expect a slow first half, because Norwich's output this season has come mostly after the break. Once Norwich score, Derby must open up with a fragile back line, and the transitions and set pieces should bring Norwich a second. Derby's attack rarely produces two goals in reply. That's why I'm siding with Norwich to win away.
