Two continental home games where the hosts carry the heavier chance profile, and where a level result is a real possibility that the slip is built to absorb. Neither game looks like a blowout; both look like the home side controlling territory and needing one clean goal.
Daejeon against Vissel Kobe: Daejeon's recent games with shot data show about 15.6 shots for and 9.6 against, with xG around 1.8 for and 0.4 against in a short sample. Kobe create about as much as Daejeon but give up 14.7 shots and roughly 1.6 xG a game, and their good goals-against record has run ahead of those chances. Daejeon are unbeaten in nine home league games, the coach has said he will field his best available side at home, and the Kobe doubt about Sasaki looks stale since he was back on the bench last time. Kobe are also on a short cycle and talked of taking a point, so a level game is possible, which is why I am comfortable on Daejeon with the draw covered.
Beijing Guoan against Jeonbuk: Beijing arrive on a five-game winning run, scoring about 2.3 a game and conceding 1.0 with five clean sheets in ten. Jeonbuk have not won in their last five away games, scoring four and conceding seven, and draw often. Beijing take the ball at home and Jeonbuk will try to sit compact and break. The caution is that Beijing's shots are fewer than they allow and the run is mostly domestic, with a 4-3 at Henan three days ago, and no lineup or absence data is confirmed for either side. The edge is modest, so I am siding with Beijing at home, again with the draw covered.
Both games should be settled by who gets the first clean chance: Daejeon through shot volume against a leaking Kobe back line, Beijing through possession and set pieces against an away side short of goals.
