Palace's build-up meets a Hoffenheim press that has recently turned recoveries into clear attacks. The important contest is the pass after that first pressure, with Mateta offering Palace a direct way out. Midtjylland–Ajax has a similar struggle around the first outlet, followed by space for wide receivers and arriving midfielders.
Hoffenheim's Lyon performance showed Kramaric connecting attacks after repeated recoveries in the opposing half. Palace have conceded through precisely that sequence: a Wharton loss against Newcastle was followed by a quick delivery from the right. Palace also allowed useful crosses and free headers at Fulham with a full team on the field.
Mateta remains eligible for this European match, and Timber and Larsen have been declared ready to play. Hoffenheim lose Hlozek, while Prass returns as a running and receiving option around Kramaric and the available forwards. I expect Palace to test their rehearsed exits early and Hoffenheim to keep asking questions of the next pass as the match develops. That's why I'm siding with Hoffenheim to come away unbeaten.
Ajax retain a clear attacking connection through Ouazane's delivery and Tolu's movement, with Baas also having supplied Tolu directly against Atalanta. Midtjylland have conceded at the far post, while their own forward targets and midfield arrivals have produced substantial box access. Wätjen and Johannesen recently scored after entering from the bench, giving the home side useful attacking options beyond Billing.
Amrabat and Brandt did not travel, changing Ajax's recovery cover as well as their passing. Midtjylland's European selection also excludes domestic defensive starter Maxsø; Berghuis is planned as a later option for Ajax. The early contest around the replacement holding midfielder should lead into a second half with different suppliers and receivers. I'm backing goals in Midtjylland–Ajax because both attacking routes meet specific gaps in the opposing protection.
