Two matches here where the favourite's usual way of winning has been taken away this week. Bayern arrive in Freiburg without the two midfielders who give them control after they score, and without their head coach. In Vigo, Celta play on short rest with a squad their own coach calls very limited, against a Betis side with a first-team bench. Both games look closer and later-turning than the names suggest.
Freiburg v Bayern. Bayern's big margins come from long spells of control, and Kimmich and Pavlovic are both out, along with Kim, Neuer and Diaz. The stand-in midfield has never shown it can hold a game: with Pavlovic and Bischof against Arsenal, Bayern had less of the ball and drew 2-2. Laimer next to Bischof is a ball-winner, not a recycler, so expect more direct balls to Kane and more second balls for Freiburg to attack.
Kane and Olise are still Bayern's best route, and Freiburg gave away cheap goals at Monaco. But Freiburg have a route that does not depend on the opponent: set pieces and headers against a back line without Kim and with Urbig in goal. The last three meetings at this ground all finished within a goal. That's why I'm siding with Freiburg to keep this close.
Celta v Betis. Celta played in Glasgow on Thursday and have less than three days' rest. The last time they played a league Sunday after a European night, Alaves outshot them 20 to 6. Betis had an extra day, their attacking core of Antony, Abde, Parrott and Roca is the one that already started midweek, and Isco, Fornals and Bartra are there for the last half hour.
Celta's best window is the first half: fresh legs, home crowd, a Hugo Alvarez delivery for Javi Rodriguez. After the hour the channels behind their wing-backs should open. Betis have scored in each of their last 20 games, so Celta need two goals from a low-event attack to win it. I'm with Betis here, with the draw a very real result in this one.
