Two matches where the numbers say the shape is clearer than the table does.
Auxerre against Le Mans: Auxerre create a lot. Their last two matches I opened gave very high chance quality, much of it after the break, while Le Mans produce far less and have lost their main finisher and a creator. Auxerre's back line is thin and leaky, but that same group has played for two weeks, so it is already in the picture. The game should be Auxerre pressing and Le Mans trying to hit once on a set piece or counter. That's why I'm siding with Auxerre, with the draw covered because Le Mans have drawn often.
Celta Vigo against Betis: Betis score and concede freely, with about 1.8 expected goals for and against over their last ten, and Celta are missing several defenders. Celta are lower scoring at home, so this is a modest lean, but three goals is a fair ask when Betis's second halves tend to be their strongest. That's why I'm leaning to a goalful game here.
