Two matches where the side with the bigger chance volume faces an opponent short of ways to score.
Cardiff against Burnley: Cardiff are unbeaten at home and average about two expected goals per game with a lot of the ball, though their own defence is leaky and their games are open. Burnley are the weakest attack in this pairing right now. Their forwards Broja, Amdouni and Bruun Larsen are listed out, and in their last game at QPR they managed only four shots and almost no expected goals, with those same absences already in place. Cardiff's short rest and thin centre-back group give Burnley a counter or set-piece route, but Burnley have little else. I'm siding with Cardiff to get the better of a draw-prone visitor at home.
Parma against Bologna: Parma concede about eighteen shots and close to two expected goals a game, and create under one themselves. Bologna have won four of their last five, including away at Milan and Cagliari, and their absences were mostly already missing in those wins. Parma's best path is a low block and one set piece or counter, but their last result was an outlier built on very little. The game should see Bologna probe the wings early and Parma struggle to answer if they fall behind. That's why I'm siding with Bologna to win away.
