Burnley–Portsmouth looks like a test of who can make the first attacking phase stick. Burnley have allowed a lot of shots lately, while Portsmouth have found ways to take points even when their own shot volume is modest. If Portsmouth can turn Burnley over and get into the box before the home side resets, this may look unlike a routine home response to a bad result. If Burnley keep those exits short, Portsmouth may spend more of the match defending.
Our recent-match data has Burnley conceding 21 shots at Lincoln and 20 against Wolves; Portsmouth took seven shots against Millwall and eight at Wolves. Portsmouth still won the Millwall match and drew at Wolves. Those results do not tell us that the same chance quality will repeat here, but they make the battle after each regain worth watching.
