Vasco come into the Rio derby on a hot streak, but most of it was built at home, and Botafogo are tough to beat at the Nilton Santos. Vasco are also without suspended midfielder Andrés Gómez and centre-back Cuesta. I think the market has gone too far towards the visitors on the strength of recent results. My view rests on how differently Vasco play at home and away.
Look at where Vasco's good results came from. The 5-0 over Coritiba, 3-1 over Cruzeiro and 2-0 over Santa Fe were all at home, and over their last ten they've conceded just once on their own ground. In the league away from home it's a different team: one win in 13, with 13 scored and 23 conceded.
Botafogo have had a rough patch, but at home they've lost only 3 of 14 league games. They also have a new man in charge. Tite lost his first game at Mirassol, but the international break gave him a couple of weeks to work with the squad. Ferraresi, Huguinho and Danilo are back from international duty, and Ziyech may start.
Vasco's absences hit the spine of the team. Gómez is suspended, Cuesta is being rested with a hip problem, and Brenner and Mateus Carvalho are still out. A trip to Boca Juniors in the Sudamericana is also coming up a week later.
Recent derbies have been tight. Botafogo won the last two league meetings, 3-0 at home and 2-1 away, and none of the last ten meetings had more than three goals.
