Two Champions League games where the shape of the match matters more than the names on the shirts.
In Manchester, the home side arrive on a four-match losing run, and the numbers explain it: they have lost the chance battle in every recent row, creating about 1.4 expected goals while allowing about 1.7. Their strikers and key midfielders are missing, so the attack depends on counters and set pieces.
Roma bring the better chance quality, about 1.9 expected goals per game, with more than half the possession and a lot of shots. They are open at the back and without their first-choice keeper, so this should be a two-way game, but Roma are the side creating more. Their recent opponents were modest, which is why I am not asking them to win outright. That's why I'm siding with Roma not to lose.
In Bodo, Glimt are a high-event home side: about 2.0 expected goals against 1.2, and more than 16 shots a game on their artificial pitch. Their home loss to Valerenga came with 22 shots and a finishing miss, not a chance deficit.
Lille arrive with their forward line stripped: Ueda, Igamane and the suspended Mbappe are out, plus Santos in defence and Bentaleb in midfield, after ten goals conceded in three Champions League games. Their away output against strong sides has been tiny. I expect Glimt to hold territory, win the box entries and take the game by a goal or two, so I'm backing Glimt to win.
