Both of these Europa League nights look like open games built on volume. One side in each match holds the ball and fires shots from everywhere, and the opponent has a back line that has been leaking chances for weeks. Neither game has a reason to be played at walking pace.
Hoffenheim v Lyon: Hoffenheim sit near the bottom of the table with no points and have lost seven of their last ten. They keep around 58% of the ball and take nearly 17 shots a game, but they concede 2.3 a game, and nine of their last ten ended with three or more goals in the match. Their last home defeats were 2-3 against Hamburg and 2-3 against Besiktas, where Besiktas created over three expected goals. Lyon score 1.9 a game and have been winning without Openda, Tagliafico and Ouedraogo for two matches in a row, so those absences are already in their form. Hoffenheim are also missing centre-back Hajdari and midfielder Wimmer, who sat out the win at Gladbach too. Both midfields are thin, and Hoffenheim need a result, so I expect them to push and Lyon to break back. That's why I'm siding with goals in this one.
Besiktas v Crystal Palace: Besiktas average 60% possession, almost 18 shots and 2.2 expected goals a game, and they have scored 15 in their last four at home. Palace arrive with goalkeeper Henderson and centre-backs Riad and Tomiyasu out, after conceding three at Lyon and five at Brighton. Henderson has been missing for several matches, so this thin back line is the current one, not a fresh shock. Palace also play Newcastle soon, which may drain them further. Besiktas should dominate territory, and if they score first Palace have to come out and the game opens up. I'm on the goals side here too, with Palace's defensive state as the main reason.
