Arsenal's expected territory and Everton's compact block make clean receiving positions more important than possession totals. Everton's own relief depends on turning a clearance into a supported forward pass. Fulham's visit to Coventry centres on repeated wide and pocket combinations against a defence recently beaten around both fullbacks.
Arsenal retain Odegaard, Eze and arriving midfield runners, but their recent settled-possession attack produced very little on target against Forest. Saka is officially ruled out after leaving the Bayern match injured, changing the right-side combinations; Everton's Grealish-to-Barry route now meets stronger pressure than it enjoyed against Hull. I expect long spells of circulation and contested outlets rather than repeated clear shooting positions. That's why I'm siding with fewer goals in Arsenal against Everton.
King, Bobb and Iwobi have each supplied chances, with the same right-sided connections visible across more than one Fulham match. Larsson and Smith Rowe are expected back subject to final training after missing the Hull squad, adding options to a mechanism that already functions. Coventry's continuing absences are already reflected in their recent side, and Awoniyi has returned to action without yet establishing sustained retention. I expect Fulham to renew attacks through the fullback gaps, which is why I'm siding with Fulham with a draw refund.
