This is a clash of styles where one side's biggest strength points straight at the other side's biggest weakness. Alvark build their games on rebounds, free throws and a deep rotation, and Brex have lost the battle on the boards to every big lineup they have faced this month. Brex's way to keep it close is a heavy diet of threes, and that depends more on the shooting night than on anything structural. The second half is where this matchup should open up.
Alvark come in top of the table with an eleven-man rotation where nobody is overloaded. They score from three places: steady three-point volume, trips to the line, and second chances against smaller frontcourts. They dominated the glass at Saga and against Akita. Their two recent home losses came from things Brex don't really bring: Ibaraki's import-heavy offensive rebounding, and a Mikawa side that got scorching hot from deep.
Under their new coach, Brex shoot a lot of threes and protect the ball well in their good games. But they were outrebounded clearly by Nagoya, Kawasaki and Akita, and their defence has sagged in the third and fourth quarters, with second-half collapses against Shinshu, Nagoya and Kawasaki. Fotu and Frazier carry the frontcourt load, with Edwards playing only a handful of minutes last time out.
The key matchup is Rossiter, Johnson, Hogg and Baranski against that Brex frontcourt. Every extra possession Alvark win there is a possession Brex can't use for their three-point barrage. On the perimeter, Alvark held three of their last four opponents to eleven or fewer made threes.
On absences, Olbrich has been out since early October and Alvark have kept winning without him. Toews has missed the last several games, and Jarreau and Okura have taken over the ball-handling with their coach's backing, so this is not a new hole. Alvark's turnovers in the second half are the flaw their coach named, but Brex aren't a team that forces many.
I expect Alvark's starters to set the tone early, as they usually do in first quarters. Their bench, which scored more than half their points at Saga, should hold that edge through the second quarter. Then the glass and free throws should stretch the lead late, when Brex's defence has tended to fade and Johnson can close. That's why I'm siding with Alvark to win this one by a clear margin.
