Both matches look like home sides with the ball and the shots against opponents who struggle to create anything. PSG bring volume that actually tests the keeper, while Lyon arrive short of forwards. Al Ain bring a real shooting edge into a game where Tractor have not scored in the continental stage so far.
PSG first. Over their last ten they average close to three goals a game with around nine shots on target and a high xG, and they have scored three or more in nine of those ten. They press hard and win the ball high, and the damage usually comes from turnovers in the opponent's first phase. Lyon are exactly the side that gets caught there: at Hoffenheim they lost 0-3 on a shot count of 8 to 21, with two of the goals coming from lost balls.
The lineup picture helps this read. Lyon are without Openda, Sulc and Nakamura (suspended after a red card), plus defenders such as Tagliafico and Kango, so their counters have little finishing behind them. PSG miss Kvaratskhelia, Dembele, Marquinhos and Mendes, but they scored three and four goals in recent games without several of those names, and these absences were already on earlier lists rather than new surprises. I expect an early PSG goal, Lyon forced to open up, and a winning margin of more than one. That is why I'm siding with PSG to win by a clear margin.
Al Ain at home against Tractor. In their two continental games Al Ain averaged more than seven shots on target and won 4-0 at home and 4-1 away. Tractor scored nothing in both of their continental games, a 0-1 away loss and a 0-0 draw, and their only route to goals looks like a counter or a set piece. Al Ain's defence is not airtight, which is why the pick is about a winning margin rather than a clean sheet.
The flow should be Al Ain holding the ball against a compact block, with the first goal pulling Tractor out of shape and opening the game. That is why I'm backing Al Ain to beat Tractor by a goal or more, with a one-goal win only returning the stake on that leg.
