Al-Ahli can reach the box through its right side, midfield arrivals and restarts, while Al-Gharafa have direct wide outlets of their own. The first press and the next loose ball should shape that match. PSG can also create from more than one point of attack after winning the ball high. Lyon's direct runs behind the full-backs make their first pass under pressure the key contest there.
Trincão and Spertsyan have supplied Toney and the far side repeatedly, and Gharafa recently allowed waves of chances even after taking a lead. Brahimi and Ounas can carry Gharafa's reply into the spaces around Al-Ahli's altered central defence. Demiral is reportedly out after missing Al-Ahli's last league match, while Bennacer played Gharafa's last match but is reportedly suspended for this competition; Galeno's training return is not an announced start. An Al-Ahli opener can draw Gharafa forward and feed another home wave, while Gharafa's own restart and wide routes add to the scoring. I'm backing this match to keep producing goals through those separate phases.
PSG's Doué, Torres and midfield runners can press Lyon's first central pass, then return through corners, Vitinha and far-side arrivals after the first attack. Lyon have Morton and Tolisso to release Nuamah or Duranville behind PSG's reshaped cover, but their later box receiving is thinner. PSG lost Dembélé, Kvaratskhelia, Marquinhos and Mendes from available roles, yet the Barcelona match showed the remaining group creating and finishing after substitutions; Lyon's match group excludes Openda, Šulc and suspended Nakamura. PSG should have repeated entries while Lyon work to make their direct first outlet stick. I'm siding with PSG to turn that pressure into a clear winning margin.
