[2026-27 Spanish La Liga] Valencia vs Villarreal Preview and Analysis Kick-off: October 24, 16:30 UTC
Valencia and Villarreal meet at Mestalla in La Liga’s 10th round of the 2026-27 season at 16:30 UTC on October 24. 19th-placed Valencia are looking for their first home win under a new coach, while 12th-placed Villarreal return to league action just four days after their Champions League trip to Liverpool. Villarreal have the edge in the table and on goals scored, but taking the expected line-ups and second-half management into account, we expect a close contest.
1. Match overview and team form
This season in La Liga Table and points: Valencia 19th, 6 points / Villarreal 12th, 9 points Record after 9 matches: Valencia 1 win, 3 draws, 5 losses / Villarreal 2 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses Goals for and conceded: Valencia 6 scored, 15 conceded / Villarreal 13 scored, 13 conceded
Valencia are winless in five league home games, with 2 draws and 3 defeats. They have scored twice and conceded 9 goals, and their only home game with a goal came against Real Sociedad. Even those 2 goals came from an Aaron Mayol long-range effort and an own goal. The home schedule has included strong sides such as Barcelona, Real Betis and Real Sociedad, which is worth bearing in mind. But Valencia also failed to score against Celta Vigo and Athletic Bilbao. The home attack’s struggles are hard to explain by the quality of the opposition alone.
Valencia’s season record also does not tell the whole story of their current form. They scored once and conceded 10 goals in Carlos Corberan’s first five matches. Under interim coach Oscar Sanchez, they scored 3 and conceded 3 in two games. Since Javier Aguirre took over, they have scored twice and conceded twice in two matches, both draws. Against Athletic Bilbao, Valencia allowed their opponents to have the ball for long spells but limited them to 0.59 expected goals. There were signs that the defence could improve, though Aguirre has only overseen two matches, so it is too early to call this a lasting change.
The difficulty of playing out from the back has persisted through the coaching changes. Sevilla and Real Sociedad disrupted Valencia’s short passing with their pressing, and after his debut against Racing Santander, Aguirre himself said the team had given the ball away too easily. Valencia did create chances when Javier Guerra carried the ball forward or played in behind the defence. The winning goal against Alaves and the equaliser against Racing Santander both came from that link-up. Aguirre has kept the defensive shape and added attacking options in the second half in each of his last two matches.
Valencia’s options up front are limited. Umar Sadiq is unavailable, while Hugo Duro and Arnaut Danjuma are yet to score in the league this season. Duro has taken 5 shots without one on target; Danjuma has 14 shots, with 5 on target. If Danjuma starts through the middle, Valencia can look to run in behind from the opening minutes. If Duro leads the line, Danjuma can start on the left, giving Aguirre room to change the attacking set-up later, as he did in the last match. Copete, Foulquier, Diego Lopez Noguerol and Sergi Canos are also out. Pablo Maffeo, who has played regularly this season, has been filling in at right-back in Foulquier’s absence.
Villarreal have scored 7 more league goals than Valencia, but they have gone two matches without scoring, losing 1-0 to Real Madrid and drawing 0-0 with Elche. The reasons for those blanks were different. Away to Real Madrid, they created few chances, with 0.62 expected goals. At home against Elche, they recorded 2.15 expected goals and 20 shots but were kept out by saves and offside calls. They can create chances, but there is little evidence that they will do so at the same rate away from home. Villarreal have only one win in five league away games this season and have conceded in every one.
Coach Inigo Perez has said he intends to rotate as the team juggles several competitions. Villarreal scored 3 goals but conceded 4 against Liverpool, and after the Mestalla match they face fixtures in the Copa del Rey, the league and the Champions League. Ilias Akhomach did not play against Liverpool, while Juan Foyth, Alex Freeman and Ayoze Perez came on as substitutes. With those players in contention to start at Mestalla, the whole squad has not accumulated the same level of fatigue. Still, Santi Comesaña and Sergi Cardona could start after featuring in both the Elche and Liverpool matches. Carlos Romero and Nicolas Pépé are out, while Nathan Saliba is a doubt.
Villarreal are unbeaten in their last five La Liga meetings with Valencia, with 3 wins and 2 draws. They also won 2-0 at Mestalla last season. Valencia were managed by Corberan at the time, though, and Perez was not in charge of Villarreal. The head-to-head record is useful context, but it does not tell us how the two coaches will approach this match. Valencia have had 7 days since their last game; Villarreal have had 4 days since their trip to Liverpool. The difference in rest does not automatically mean a difference in overall fitness, but it gives us reason to watch Valencia’s early pressing, which Aguirre has flagged, and how Comesaña and Cardona cope later on.
2. Match-up analysis
Villarreal’s pressing will test Valencia’s build-up early on. Villarreal have scored when opponents have made mistakes in their own half. Against Napoli and Liverpool, Georges Mikautadze intercepted an opposition pass or header and scored. Valencia have struggled to play through the middle under pressure across their three coaches. If Villarreal press forward as Pepelu and Guido Rodriguez receive the ball in front of the defence, Valencia could lose possession before they even get an attack going.
Aguirre has another way to reduce the risk of short passes. In the second minute against Racing Santander, Dani Raba scored after getting on the end of a long ball from Derhas. If Valencia can bypass the first press that way, Guerra and the wide attackers can target the space behind Villarreal’s defence. Villarreal have previously conceded a chance to Kylian Mbappe from a long ball in their away game against Real Madrid. Valencia’s forwards, though, have poor scoring records this season. Long balls can help them avoid the press, but they are not enough on their own to make us expect a goal.
If Villarreal dominate possession, Akhomach’s runs down the right and Alberto Moleiro’s positioning will matter. Akhomach reached the right byline to set up Moleiro’s goal against Malaga and repeatedly attacked the same flank against Levante. At Mestalla, he is likely to face Valencia left-back Gayà. If Moleiro plays centrally, he can receive passes between Pepelu and Guido Rodriguez. If he starts on the left, Villarreal may rely more on attacks down the flank than on central combinations. Pre-match line-up reports differ on Moleiro’s position, so we will know more once the teams are announced.
Valencia’s right-sided attack could also trouble Villarreal’s defence. Cardona is likely to take over at left-back from Romero and likes to get forward. When he pushes up, David Otorbi or Raba can run into the space behind him. Otorbi came on in the second half against Racing Santander and scored the equaliser, then created more chances with runs down the right against Athletic Bilbao. If he starts, he will face Cardona from the outset. If he is kept as a substitute, he could come on in the second half, when Cardona may be feeling the effects of starting each of the previous two matches. We cannot know before kick-off exactly how tired Cardona will be, so Valencia’s ability to keep targeting that side will be key.
The coaches’ substitutions could also shape the second half. Aguirre has added attacking players between the 54th and 58th minutes in both of his matches, and Valencia created more chances after those changes. Villarreal have conceded soon after taking the lead or have let leads slip this season. They were pegged back a minute after scoring first against Levante, and conceded shortly after going 2-1 up against Deportivo La Coruña. If Valencia reach half-time without conceding, or trail by a single goal, they can bring on a wide attacker and test Villarreal’s defence again.
Villarreal have attacking options to bring on around the same time. Mikautadze, who is absent from both predicted starting line-ups, is the team’s top scorer with 4 goals and 2 assists in all competitions this season. Tani Oluwaseyi has also scored as a substitute against Napoli and Liverpool. If Mikautadze starts on the bench, Ayoze Perez, Moleiro and Akhomach will be tasked with finishing chances in the first half, with a proven scorer added later. If Valencia bring on a forward and commit fewer players to defence, Villarreal’s chances of adding another goal will rise too. That is why the second-half changes do not automatically favour Valencia.
Valencia need to pay particular attention to the first-half score. They have not led at half-time in any of their 9 league matches this season, and they lost all 3 games in which they were behind at the break. Those three defeats came before Aguirre took over. Under Aguirre against Racing Santander, Valencia were 2-1 down during the match before Otorbi’s goal earned a draw. Villarreal have also struggled when level at half-time, though that record includes matches against Liverpool, Dortmund and Real Madrid. A 0-0 at the break has been close to the conditions under which Valencia have picked up points, but that score alone does not mean they will be able to keep Villarreal’s second-half attack quiet.
3. Verdict and conclusion
We expect Villarreal to have more of the ball and press in Valencia’s half during the first half. Valencia may press early, then settle into a compact 4-2-3-1 and look for Guerra’s forward runs and Derhas’s long passes. Villarreal’s press targets Valencia’s recurring problems in build-up, but if Mikautadze starts on the bench as expected, it could change who is available to finish the chances that pressure creates in the first half.
The market leans towards a Villarreal win on the basis of the table, the goal difference, their unbeaten recent record against Valencia and Valencia’s goals conceded this season. But many of Valencia’s goals against came under previous coaches, and Villarreal’s expected starting XI differs from the one that faced Liverpool. Their tendency to concede after taking the lead also meets Valencia’s attacking changes in the second half. Valencia’s finishing up front is a concern, so these factors are more likely to narrow Villarreal’s advantage than to produce a home win.
Our score prediction is Valencia 1-1 Villarreal or 0-0, with 1-1 the likelier result. We expect a goalless first half, followed by Villarreal taking the lead through a substitute after the break and Valencia responding with Otorbi or Rioja, targeting the flank covered by Cardona. Villarreal’s press is aimed at Valencia’s weakness, but Mikautadze may be absent as a finisher from the expected starting XI, and Aguirre’s wide attacking substitutions will come when Villarreal are trying to protect a lead. If neither side’s attacking substitutes can make their chances count, the match could finish 0-0. If Mikautadze starts and turns a turnover in Valencia’s half into a first-half goal, this forecast, which assumes a goalless first half, becomes less likely.
