[2026–27 Spanish La Liga] RC Celta de Vigo vs Alavés preview and analysis Kick-off: 18 October, 14:15 UTC
RC Celta de Vigo and Alavés meet at the Abanca Balaídos Stadium in Vigo for round nine of La Liga. Celta return to action around 67 hours after their Europa League comeback defeat to Juventus, while Alavés have had eight days off and are chasing their first away win.
1. Match overview and team form
In the data centre’s league table on 17 October, Celta are 10th with 1 win, 5 draws and 2 defeats from 8 matches. Alavés are 7th with 3 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats. Celta are one point above 18th-placed Elche in the relegation zone, while Alavés earned 10 points in their first 4 rounds and have added only 1 point in their last 4. Celta have reason to build on their league wins, and Alavés need to end their winless run.
La Liga this season Record after 8 matches: Celta 1 win, 5 draws, 2 defeats / Alavés 3 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats Goals for and against: Celta 8 scored, 6 conceded / Alavés 12 scored, 8 conceded Home record: Celta 1 win, 1 draw, 2 defeats / Alavés 3 wins, 2 defeats Away record: Celta 4 draws / Alavés 2 draws, 1 defeat
Celta’s 6 goals conceded are the fewest in the league, though their defensive record varies by venue. They have conceded just once in 4 away matches, sitting in a deep defensive shape. At home, they have let in 5 goals and lost to both Osasuna and Athletic Club. Their attacking numbers are also skewed: 5 of their 8 league goals came in the home match against Racing Santander. Their unbeaten away run does not tell the full story of how they attack and defend when they dominate possession at home.
All 3 of Alavés’ league wins have come at home. They are still without an away victory after scoring 2 and conceding 3 in 3 road matches. Their 2 goals across the last 4 league games came from a corner and a penalty won from a set piece, with no open-play goals. Their defence has not collapsed in every match. All 3 of their recent defeats were by a single goal, and goalkeeper Antonio Sivera saved a penalty away to Athletic Club to help secure a 0-0 draw. To earn their first away win, they need to keep defending well and get their fading attack back on track.
Celta also have changes to make to their personnel. Borja Iglesias, whom coach Giráldez called the team’s only natural striker, is out, as is Pablo Durán. Midfielder Miguel Román, who receives the ball and drives forward, centre-back Carl Starfelt and Jones El Abdellaoui are also unavailable. Ferran Jutglà and Hugo González are options up front. Giráldez said Sebastián Cáceres would play, despite having fitness issues while on international duty. Even if Jutglà starts as the striker, he does not offer the same kind of penalty-box presence as Iglesias.
For Alavés, the biggest change is the suspension of Ángel Pérez, who has driven their attacks down the right. Pérez advanced down that flank and cut the ball back in the move that led to the winner against Villarreal, then set up 2 goals with crosses against Osasuna. Defender Nahuel Tenaglia could move to right wing-back, which would mean a new player is needed in central defence. Abde Rebbach on the left, and Lucas Boyé and Toni Martínez up front, remain available. How well another player can replace Pérez’s forward runs and crossing will shape the match.
The two managers met at the same ground last March. Celta made 9 changes to their starting XI after a Europa League match and led 3-0, but Alavés, managed by Quique Sánchez Flores, turned it around to win 4-3 after he made 4 half-time substitutions. Pérez, who was involved in Alavés’ goals that day, is unavailable this time, and some of the Celta defenders who made mistakes are no longer in the squad. That result is no guide to today’s likely score, though it shows how Sánchez Flores changed his side’s attack with second-half substitutions.
The schedule puts more strain on Celta. This is their third match in 7 days, and they have a Europa League trip to Celtic in 4 days. Giráldez regularly changes his starting XI, so some of the players who started against Juventus may be used as substitutes this time. The difference in rest days will not affect every starter equally. The more important question is whether the defenders who played 90 minutes against Juventus will still have to battle Alavés’ forwards late in the game.
2. Match-up analysis
The basic pattern should be Celta possession against Alavés’ 5-3-2 defence. Against Athletic Club, Alavés used 3 midfielders in front of 3 centre-backs to limit connections through the middle. Giráldez named Jutglà and Hugo González as options up front in Iglesias’ absence, and explained that Iago Aspas receives the ball when space opens between the lines. Celta will look to use those spaces, while Alavés will try to close them with numbers.
For Celta to create chances through the middle, Jutglà needs to receive the ball and turn, or win the second ball after an Alavés long pass. Jutglà scored against Málaga after winning possession and driving forward, and he also carried the ball himself to score in last March’s meeting. But if Antonio Blanco and Pablo Ibáñez stop him from turning, Celta are likely to move the ball back out wide. With Román absent, who receives the ball in midfield and feeds the forwards will also matter.
Celta’s wing-backs can push forward out wide, but Iglesias is unavailable to finish their crosses. If they keep sending high balls into the box, Alavés’ three centre-backs can compete for them. Celta will need their wide attackers to beat defenders and cut the ball back from near the byline, or Jutglà to drop deep and draw a centre-back out of position. Alavés conceded against Valencia when a through ball split their centre-backs. Whether Celta can create those gaps depends on how Alavés’ midfield responds.
Celta’s high press faces a different test, too. Goals against Racing Santander and Málaga followed turnovers as the opponents tried to play out from the back. Alavés may keep short passing to a minimum and send long balls to Boyé and Toni Martínez. Celta’s press would then be about winning the second ball in midfield, rather than forcing a turnover near the opposition goal. If an Alavés forward can hold up the ball, Celta’s defenders will have to drop back and deal with the movement of the front two.
Pérez’s absence is a clear limitation in Alavés’ attack. The player who carried the ball and supplied crosses from the right is out, so even if Tenaglia plays at wing-back, Alavés may attack differently. That puts more weight on Rebbach’s runs down the left and the aerial battles of Boyé and Toni Martínez. Rebbach beat a defender and scored the winner at Balaídos last March. He came off against Athletic Club after reporting discomfort in his right thigh, though, so we will have to see how much he can take on defenders this time.
Set pieces offer Alavés a route to trouble Celta’s defence. They scored from a corner away to Racing Santander recently, and Boyé and Toni Martínez can compete in the box. Celta conceded from corners against both Getafe and Málaga, after failing to clear and mark effectively. Both goals against Juventus also started with crosses. Starfelt, who usually handles aerial duels, is out this time. Alavés are also without Pérez, a regular source of crosses. How much the change in supply eases Celta’s defensive workload will be a key factor.
The second-half approach will depend on who scores first. If Celta take the lead, Alavés can send more players forward. That may open gaps in their defence and give Celta chances to break quickly. At the same time, Giráldez has not added defenders even in recent home matches when his side were ahead, and Celta lost leads to crosses and set pieces against Málaga and Juventus. If Alavés score first, they can add defenders and tighten up the middle. Celta would then have to find an equaliser without a natural striker or Starfelt.
Both managers will have options if the game stays 0-0 for a long time. Giráldez could bring on players such as Williot Swedberg and Hugo Álvarez, who started against Juventus, while Sánchez Flores still has forwards he can add. That makes it hard to assume Celta will inevitably run out of energy in the second half. But without Durán and Iglesias, Giráldez cannot bring on a natural striker to add a presence in the box. Even if Celta move the ball faster after the break, they will need to turn that into clear chances against Alavés’ defensive shape.
3. Final assessment and conclusion
Celta are likely to have more of the ball, but the gap in chances may not be as wide as the possession share. Alavés’ 5-3-2 reduces the central space Celta’s forwards want to receive in, and Iglesias is unavailable to finish crosses. Alavés, meanwhile, need to revive their open-play attack without Pérez. With a key route to goal weakened for both sides, creating a second goal after the opener may be difficult.
The market makes Celta the most likely winners, pointing to home advantage, the league’s fewest goals conceded and Alavés’ recent winless run. But much of Celta’s defensive record comes from holding firm in a deep shape across 4 away matches. At home, they will need to dominate possession, and they have recently conceded from crosses and set pieces even after taking the lead. Alavés’ winless run reflects their drop in attack, but that alone is not enough to expect Celta to break down their defence repeatedly.
Our score prediction is Celta 1-1 Alavés, with 0-0 also in play. Even if Celta exploit Alavés’ reshuffled right side and take the lead, Giráldez may keep attacking players on the pitch. That would leave Celta having to defend further crosses and set pieces without Starfelt. Alavés have kept things tight away from home lately, while Pérez’s absence is likely to reduce their attacking output. Taking both factors into account, a 1-1 draw looks the likeliest outcome, though a goalless match is also possible. If Giráldez brings on defensive options after taking the lead and lowers his team’s shape to reduce aerial duels from crosses, Celta could hold on for a 1-0 win.
