[2026-27 Dutch Eredivisie] Groningen vs Ajax preview and analysis Kick-off: 18 October, 14:45 UTC
Groningen and Ajax meet at the Euroborg in round nine of the Eredivisie at 14:45 UTC on 18 October. Sixth-placed Groningen trail fifth-placed Ajax by one point and can move above them with a win. The question is whether Groningen’s attack, which has found its feet again, or Ajax’s perfect away record will hold up against today’s line-ups and playing styles.
1. Match overview and team form
Groningen have taken 14 points from eight league matches, with four wins, two draws and two defeats, scoring 20 goals and conceding 14. Ajax have 15 points from four wins, three draws and one defeat, with 22 goals scored and 10 conceded. Both sides have scored freely, but Ajax’s three away wins in the league, with 11 goals scored and one conceded, all came against teams currently in seventh place or lower. Groningen are the highest-ranked team Ajax have faced away from home this season. All four of Groningen’s wins have also come against teams currently in 10th place or lower, so their results so far do not tell us much about who has the edge in this match.
Category League position and points: Groningen, 6th, 14 points / Ajax, 5th, 15 points Recent competitive form: Groningen unbeaten in four league matches / Ajax winless in three matches League home and away form: Groningen, 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat at home / Ajax, 3 away wins
After going four matches without a win, Groningen beat PEC Zwolle 3-0 and Excelsior 5-1. Centre-back Marco Rente was the starting point for their attacks in both games. Against PEC Zwolle, he played a long ball from the back to launch an attack down the right. Against Excelsior, he pushed up near the opposition penalty area, pressed, and scored the opener himself. The right-sided combination of Jorg Schreuders and David van der Werff, with Thom van Bergen finishing, has also clicked again.
Those two wins are not enough to prove that Groningen have become defensively solid. The four-goal margin against Excelsior was helped by a goalkeeper error, a penalty and a deflection, and Groningen’s expected goals conceded in that match was 1.74. They let in 11 goals across the four winless games before that. Captain Thijmen Blokzijl had different centre-back partners during that spell, but there is not enough detail from those matches to say the changes directly caused every goal. Rente’s return has made Groningen’s route forward clearer, though whether they can stop Ajax’s attacks down the flanks is a separate question.
Ajax drew 1-1 at home to NEC Nijmegen and 2-2 against Excelsior before losing 2-1 away to Hajduk Split. In both league draws, they created plenty of chances but failed to finish them, then conceded from limited opportunities after taking the lead. The Hajduk Split game was different. Under pressure, passes from the back led to two goals against, and Ajax were second best on expected goals, 1.15 to 1.99. That is why their winless run of three cannot be explained solely by poor finishing luck.
The managers also take different approaches. Dick Lukkien is likely to keep the same starting XI as in the previous match and has said Groningen will look to play on the ball against Ajax too. Michel favours possession and positional play, but Ajax have given opponents space to attack after they play through the first press this season. Michel has said he will not rotate players just because of the schedule, and has not confirmed his line-up for the Groningen match.
Ajax will be without full-backs Anton Gaaei and Caio Henrique, who featured in away wins over Telstar and Fortuna Sittard. Lucas Rosa or Thilo Kehrer is expected on the right, with Owen Wijndal on the left. Reports say striker Kasper Dolberg is out for the season, leaving Marcos Leonardo as the main alternative to Tolu Arokodare. Steven Berghuis is a doubt. The absences of Gaaei and Henrique affect Ajax’s defensive pairing and their crossing from wide areas, while Berghuis’s absence would also change who takes set pieces. Groningen could keep the same starting XI as last time, but they have few centre-back options if either Blokzijl or Rente is unavailable.
Groningen won 3-1 in last season’s meeting at the Euroborg. Van Bergen scored early, then substitute Oskar Zawada added two goals in the second half. Ajax were managed by Fred Grim at the time, though they beat Groningen 2-0 in the play-off semi-final in May. More than those past results, what matters today is whether Groningen can get the ball to Van Bergen. Ajax play again around 70 hours after their trip to Croatia, while Groningen have had seven days off. We will need to watch their movement and substitutions after the break to see whether that rest advantage shows up.
2. Match-up analysis
Groningen’s first route forward is through Ajax’s initial press. After watching the Hajduk Split match, Lukkien said the patterns he had prepared for matched what Ajax actually did, and that Ajax’s first-half pressing against a team in possession had caused problems. Groningen can use Rente’s long passes to find Schreuders and van der Werff on the right. If Van Bergen drops into midfield to receive, he can also play a pass for Brynjólfur Willumsson to run onto. If Ajax do not win the ball high up the pitch, those players will have time to move forward.
There is another side to that scenario. We cannot assume Rente will repeat the mistakes Ajax forced in the Hajduk Split game. Two goals in that match involved inaccurate passes from Jofre Torrents, who was making his first start for the senior side. If Wijndal starts on the left as expected and Aaron Bouwman returns at centre-back, Ajax will have a different build-up shape. If Groningen press high and fail to win the ball, Rente could leave his defensive partner short at the back against Arokodare and midfielders arriving late in the box. Whether Groningen’s press creates chances or opens a route forward for Ajax will depend on where they win the ball and how quickly they recover their shape.
The teams’ main attacking threat could meet on the same flank. Groningen’s right-sided combinations created the opener against PEC Zwolle. Ajax created plenty of chances down the left against Willem II, with Wijndal, Julian Brandt and Oscar Gloukh in that area. If the expected players start there, Gloukh and Wijndal could run into the space behind Schreuders when he pushes forward. On the other hand, if Wijndal is caught high when Ajax lose possession, van der Werff and Van Bergen could attack the space he leaves behind.
Groningen have already been punished for leaving space on that flank. Away to PSV, opponent striker Ruben van Bommel repeatedly ran into the space around Schreuders, and Groningen lost 5-1 despite scoring first. Lukkien substituted Schreuders at half-time. If Groningen keep using the right to attack today, other players will need to cover the space behind Schreuders, or stop Ajax moving forward as soon as they lose the ball. Ajax will also have to defend Groningen’s right-sided combinations with a new full-back pairing.
Crosses remain a scoring route for Ajax alongside their switches of play. Against NEC Nijmegen, Arokodare headed in a high cross from Jorthy Mokio. Against Hajduk Split, Davy Klaassen finished a cross from Kehrer. Klaassen and Brandt have scored by arriving in the box later than the centre-forward. Blokzijl and Rente will need to contest aerial balls with Arokodare while keeping the defensive line compact enough for Tygo Land and Pelle Clement to track midfielders arriving late. A change at full-back will not take away Arokodare’s and Klaassen’s ability to finish.
Ajax’s midfield selection will also affect Groningen’s ability to move forward. If Sofyan Amrabat starts, Ajax will have a specialist holding midfielder to cover the space in front of the defence where van der Werff moves. If Mokio plays there, Ajax will have another player who can join the attack, but someone will need to protect that space. Whichever combination Michel chooses, the first thing to watch is whether Groningen can get past Ajax’s press early in the match while sticking to their plan to keep the ball.
An early goal is unlikely to settle the match by itself. Groningen have lost all three of their last 10 matches in which they were behind at half-time. If Ajax lead at the break, Groningen will have to send more players forward, giving Ajax more chances to attack the space behind Schreuders and deliver crosses. Ajax have also dropped points after taking the lead in three of their five home league matches this season. If Groningen score first and Ajax commit more players forward, Groningen could find more chances to attack on the counter.
The substitutes could change the same battle after the break. Lukkien has brought on Tygo Land for Jacob Ondrejka on 66 minutes in each of the last two matches. Against Excelsior, Clement moved further forward after that change, and Willumsson scored soon afterwards. Michel has made several changes at once between the 60th and 76th minutes in recent matches. There is no reason to assume Ajax will run out of energy because of their short turnaround, but Arokodare and the full-backs played more than 90 minutes against Hajduk Split. How they move in the second half will help show whether Groningen’s substitutions are making a difference.
3. Verdict and prediction
We expect both teams to try to keep the ball, with repeated attacks and transitions down the same flank. If Groningen play through Ajax’s first press and find Van Bergen and van der Werff, they could create the first chances. Ajax can also score through the space behind Schreuders, Arokodare’s aerial threat and Klaassen’s late runs into the box. We slightly favour a game in which Groningen keep their attack going with second-half substitutions, then take the lead again after Ajax commit more players forward and struggle to get back into shape.
The market sees Ajax as clear favourites because of their attacking options and three straight league away wins. Those wins all came against teams below Groningen in the table, and Gaaei and Henrique, who are both out today, played in the confirmed wins over Telstar and Fortuna Sittard. Those opponents sat back and looked to counter, while Groningen may take a different approach under Lukkien’s plan to keep the ball. Groningen could also keep the same starting XI as last time, while Ajax play again around 70 hours after their trip to Croatia. Given those differences, we respect Ajax’s scoring threat, but we do not rate their chances as highly as their away record might suggest.
Our score predictions are Groningen 3-2 Ajax or Groningen 3-1 Ajax. We expect Groningen to create chances through possession and their right-sided combinations, with Ajax scoring from crosses and late runs before Groningen move ahead again after the hour mark. This view weakens if Ajax do not show signs of fatigue in their pressing and recovery runs after the break. In particular, if Ajax score first and keep targeting the space behind Schreuders, they could extend their lead as Groningen commit more players forward.
