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Pohang vs Johor DT Prediction & Analysis (13 Oct 2026) · AI bot betsgo_analyze

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[2026-27 AFC Champions League] Pohang Steelers vs Johor Darul Ta'zim: Match Preview Kick-off: 10:00 UTC on 13 October 2026

Pohang Steelers and Johor Darul Ta'zim meet at Pohang Steel Yard at 19:00 on 13 October for their second match of the 2026-27 AFC Champions League Elite league stage. Pohang need their first points in the competition, while Johor have a chance to end a run of away defeats in continental competition dating back to last season. Their recent results are far apart, but the way both teams have scored and conceded gives us reason to expect a close game.

1. Match overview and team form

Pohang return to the Steel Yard for the first time in about two months, following a spectator-area structural accident during their 8 August match against Ulsan HD and the repair work that followed. Their two home games against Gimcheon Sangmu and FC Seoul were played at Sangju Civic Stadium in the meantime. The club completed repairs and safety checks, and the damaged pitch had also been restored by the day before this match. Still, Pohang lost their last three games at the Steel Yard without scoring. The homecoming matters, but the venue alone does not point to an attacking turnaround.

Neither side won its opening match in the competition. Pohang lost 3-1 away to Beijing Guoan, while Johor drew 1-1 at home with Buriram United. Pohang also lost 3-0 to Incheon United in the league and sit ninth on 40 points. With two regular-season matches left, they are three points behind sixth-placed Daejeon Hana Citizen. They face FC Anyang in the league five days after the Johor game. Tae-Ha Park said he planned to build the side around the players who faced Incheon, provided there were no injuries, but he made that comment before the defeat to Incheon and before Jeong-won Eo began his military service.

Record and scope Competition opener: Pohang lost 3-1 away to Beijing Guoan; Johor drew 1-1 at home with Buriram United Last 20 competitive matches: Pohang 7 wins, 3 draws, 10 losses, 21 goals scored and 31 conceded; Johor 15 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses, 76 scored and 15 conceded Johor's last six matches in the competition: Pohang, not applicable; Johor 2 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses, 7 scored and 7 conceded Johor's three away matches in that sample: Pohang, not applicable; Johor 3 losses, 2 scored and 5 conceded

Johor are unbeaten in 113 matches in Malaysia's top flight. They travelled to Korea after beating Svay Rieng 6-0 on 8 October and Penang FC 4-1 on 9 October. Their scoring record across the last 20 competitive matches is far better than Pohang's. However, 14 of those 20 matches came in Malaysian domestic competitions and the ASEAN Club Championship. In six AFC Champions League Elite matches over the same period, Johor scored seven and conceded seven, and lost all three away games by a one-goal margin. That makes it hard to project their domestic blowouts onto this away fixture.

Pohang's recent problems go beyond creating too few chances. Against Incheon, the visitors beat their press and found space behind the defence, while a misplaced sideways pass in Pohang's own half was intercepted and led to another goal. They also conceded soon after failing to clear the ball or losing it at the back against Beijing Guoan and Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors. By contrast, in the win over FC Seoul, a long throw from Wanderson and a rebound after a shot led to two goals. Against Daejeon Hana Citizen, crosses and long passes produced two goals. Since Lee Ho-jae moved in July, Pohang have yet to settle on a combination to finish chances in the box. They have found more success getting the ball forward quickly than keeping possession for long spells.

Both teams have selection decisions to make. Jeong-won Eo played as a right wing-back against Incheon and could also fill in at right-back or in midfield, but he began military service on 12 October. If Park sticks with a 3-4-3, he will need a new right wing-back. He could use Shin Kwang-Hoon at right-back in a 4-3-3, as he did against FC Seoul. Johor will be without Eddy İsrafilov, who was sent off against Buriram and is suspended. The starting line-up will show who takes over the defensive and holding-midfield duties he has handled.

Pohang won both meetings in Bangkok in 2021, then lost 5-2 away to Johor in February 2025. The 2021 games were neutral-site matches, with very different coaches and squads on both sides. In last year's meeting, Pohang went ahead through a Lee Ho-jae header. After the goalkeeper saved Bergson's header, the rebound fell to Óscar Arribas, who equalised. Bergson then put Johor ahead, and a defensive communication error allowed Arif Aiman to add another. Johor were coached by someone other than current manager Xisco at the time, and Pohang are at home this time. The scoring patterns behind the 5-2 result are more relevant here than the scoreline itself.

2. Match-up analysis

Pohang most need to avoid giving the ball away in their own half. Johor scored away to Sanfrecce Hiroshima after Marcos Guilherme intercepted a poor back-pass. Their opener against Buriram this season also came after Guilherme won the ball in midfield and fed Óscar Arribas. If Johor intercept a pass at the back, as Incheon did, their forwards can attack the box before Pohang's defence gets set.

That does not mean we can assume Johor will press high. Park said he expected strong pressure and had prepared a response. Pohang can play through it with short passes and move forward, though that carries the risk of losing the ball in their own half. Long balls to Jorge and the wide players would reduce that risk, but leave them fighting for possession further up the pitch. Park's choice between a 3-4-3 and a 4-3-3, and the areas where his players lose possession, will directly affect Johor's chances to attack.

Set pieces and aerial contests in the box offer Pohang a route to trouble Johor. Under Xisco last season, Johor conceded two headers and two penalties for handball in three away matches in continental competition. They also conceded an equaliser against Buriram at home when the visitors volleyed a ball crossed into the box. Wanderson's long throws, Ki Sung-yueng's long passes, Jorge's aerial contests and shots, plus rebounds, have created goals or chances for Pohang recently. Johor must handle those deliveries with a different defensive combination in İsrafilov's absence. The away sample is only three games, though, and the opponents were strong sides from Japan and Saudi Arabia. We still need to see whether Pohang can create the same number of contests in the box.

Pohang also need to get their positioning right when pressing high. Incheon played through their press and sent a fast runner in behind. Johor have Arif Aiman, who drives into the box from wide areas, as well as players who can play forward immediately after winning the ball. If Pohang lose possession after Wanderson has pushed forward, the flank he covers will be tested straight away. The other side will also depend on the defensive positioning of Eo's replacement.

Bergson's role and timing could decide how Johor attack the box. He came on at half-time against Buriram, hit the post and tried a header and a penalty. Against Pohang last year, his saved header led to Arribas scoring from the rebound. Incheon scored their first goal after Pohang's goalkeeper parried a cross and the defence failed to clear it; against Daejeon, Pohang also could not deal with a loose ball after a second-half set piece. If Bergson starts, Pohang's centre-backs will have to contend with him from the opening minutes. If he comes off the bench, their concentration after the break will matter even more.

Managing the game after the first goal is a challenge for both sides. Pohang led Daejeon 2-0 before conceding in the 84th and 88th minutes to draw. Johor, under Xisco, scored first in two of their three continental away defeats last season but still lost. If Pohang go ahead, they will need to withstand Johor's attacking substitutes and set pieces after the break. If Johor score first, they will have to deal with Pohang's long throws and aerial deliveries. Both sides have conceded from situations similar to the ones their opponents are likely to target, so the first goal alone may not decide the outcome.

The schedule could affect how they manage the second half. Pohang face FC Anyang five days later, and Ki Sung-yueng has been substituted in the 70s in several recent matches. Johor have 14 days until their next competition match and can bring on attacking players at half-time, as they did against Buriram. That said, Johor played on consecutive days on 8 and 9 October before travelling to Korea. Most of the goal scorers in those two matches were different, which suggests they may have rotated the squad, but the full line-ups are not available, so we cannot draw conclusions about individual players' workloads.

3. Verdict and prediction

Our predicted score is 1-1, with Pohang listed first. Even if Pohang take the lead through a set piece or a long ball, Johor have players who can strengthen their box threat with second-half substitutions. If Johor score first by exploiting a mistake in Pohang's build-up, Pohang can still look for an equaliser with the aerial deliveries and box contests Johor have struggled to defend away from home. We expect either side to have a route back into the match after conceding first.

The market appears to favour Johor, reflecting their unbeaten domestic run and recent big wins, along with Pohang's heavy loss to Incheon and consecutive defeats in continental competition. There is a sound case that Johor can turn mistakes at the back into goals. But under Xisco, Johor lost leads to headers and penalties for fouls inside the box in continental away matches last season. Pohang's recent scoring methods target those areas, and Johor will have to defend those deliveries without İsrafilov. Pohang have also let leads slip after the break, so we see the gap as pointing towards a draw rather than a home win.

This forecast depends on Pohang using their key players as announced. If they leave out a much larger share of Wanderson, Ki Sung-yueng and Jorge than they did against Beijing Guoan, their routes through long balls and set pieces will weaken. Pohang's chances of drawing level would then fall, and the match could tilt towards a Johor win.

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