[2026-27 Serie A] Torino vs Udinese Preview and Analysis Kickoff: October 12, 18:45 UTC
Torino and Udinese close out Serie A Matchday 6 at Olimpico Grande Torino, kicking off at 18:45 UTC on October 12. Both sides sit near the bottom on 4 points, and this is their first competitive game in three weeks, since their league matches on September 19. Udinese scoring first and Torino pulling level after the break have been a recurring pattern this season, so how each side manages the game after the opening goal will matter.
1. Match Overview and Form
As of October 11, Udinese are 14th and Torino 15th. Both have a record of 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses from five league games, and neither has kept a clean sheet. Torino have scored 5 and conceded 8, while Udinese have scored 8 and conceded 11. The tables look alike, but the points were lost in different ways. Torino have conceded first in all five league games and still got a win over Fiorentina and a draw at Bologna. Udinese scored first in four games, yet their only win came against Monza.
League record, five games this season First goal: Torino conceded first in all 5 / Udinese scored first in 4 Goals by half (first half, second half): Torino 1 and 4 / Udinese 6 and 2 Second-half goals conceded: Torino 5 / Udinese 8
In Torino's recent games, the changes after the break swung the result. At Fiorentina, coach Abate made substitutions in the second half, switched to a back four in a 4-3-1-2 and came back to win 2-1. At Bologna he added attackers and moved to a 4-4-2, and Kulenovic's equaliser made it 1-1. Both goals owed something to opposition errors, so substitutions alone do not explain them. Still, it is clear that when Torino have been behind, Abate has added attackers and more routes to get the ball forward.
We also have to look at how Torino concede. Against Roma, an opponent intercepted goalkeeper Lucas's pass and scored the opener. The opening goal at Bologna came after Torino lost the ball on the flank and a defensive clearance went unfinished. Torino have had plenty of the ball this season, but they have handed chances to opponents while playing out from the back. Their expected goals average is only 1.03 per game, and they managed just 8 shots against Sassuolo, 7 against Fiorentina and 6 against Roma. They turned the Fiorentina game around thanks to a defensive error, but they have not consistently created the chances that would turn a second-half push into an extra goal.
Udinese have often failed to turn a first goal into a win. Against Como they could not hold a first-half lead, and against Lazio they went ahead in the 49th minute, then conceded in the 75th and the 88th. At Inter they led 2-0 after 16 minutes and lost 5-3. In games where they dropped deeper after taking the lead, opponents got time to attack again. Yet against Cagliari they had 26 shots and 2.13 expected goals and still lost 1-0. That is why the three straight defeats cannot be put down to a lack of chances alone. According to data centre figures, Udinese have conceded 8 second-half goals in five league games.
Home and away records need to be read alongside the opposition. Torino took no points from their two home league games, but those were against Milan and Roma. Udinese took 3 points from two away games, against Monza and Inter. With only two games each, home or away form is a weak basis for a pick. Udinese won both meetings last season, but Torino's coach then was not Abate, who is in charge today, and Zaniolo, who scored in the January meeting, is out this time. Torino's run of scoring in 10 straight home games against Udinese also spans several coaches and squads.
Some player conditions will affect the timing of substitutions more than the starting lineups. Udinese's Davis can play, but according to coach Runjaic he cannot last 90 minutes. Zaniolo, Gueye and Piotrowski are out. Gueye in particular is the forward who came on for Davis against Cagliari and had 5 shots. In defence, Solet is expected to start. Torino expect Comuzzo back after missing the Bologna game, and Adams can play but is not fit for 90 minutes. With Fortini suffering from pubic bone pain, Belgali is mentioned as the starter on the right.
Both teams have had a long break, and there is no sign that either will rest key players today. Rain and strong wind are not forecast around kickoff either. More than the schedule or the weather, the conditions that bear most directly on this game are what roles the returning defenders play and when the two coaches use their attackers with limited minutes.
2. Matchup Analysis
We expect Torino to hold the ball and Udinese to move it forward quickly after winning it back. Torino's possession this season is 53.8% and Udinese's is 45.8%. Udinese have created chances with Davis taking the ball with his back to goal and linking it to the second line. That link was there in Ekkelenkamp's goal against Inter and Karlstrom's goal against Lazio. When Torino carry the ball out from the back with short passes, Udinese can win it and get it quickly to Ekkelenkamp and Unai Gomez. We have no basis to say Udinese will press high for the whole game, but a Torino defender's mistake on the ball can become dangerous even with just a few players going forward.
Last May's meeting showed that risk in practice. Torino's Coco was carrying the ball out from the back when Solet, who had stepped up, took it off him. Ekkelenkamp, receiving Solet's pass, entered the box and set up Ehizibue's goal. Torino's coach was different then, but Coco is expected to play centrally in the back three again today, and Solet and Ekkelenkamp are expected to play too. The first pass from Lucas and the defenders is where Torino can reduce Udinese's chances of scoring first. A midfielder dropping in to receive or the defenders playing long are both options. How Torino actually build will show in their early handling of the ball.
On the flanks, Torino's right-sided Belgali faces Udinese's left-sided Kamara. Kamara has 2 goals and 1 assist in the league this season. If Belgali goes forward to support the attack, Kamara can advance before he gets back into position. If Kamara goes high and Udinese then lose the ball, Torino can attack down Belgali's side as well. Belgali whipped in the cross that led to the winner against Fiorentina, but he struggled defensively against Bologna. This duel matters most if Belgali's start is confirmed.
On the other side, Torino's Cacciamani takes on Udinese's Vojvoda. Cacciamani's cross led to Comuzzo's header against Sassuolo, and against Roma he set up a run behind Simeone's defence. In the middle, the key is whether Mandragora gets a position to try left-footed shots from outside the box. He scored that way against Fiorentina and shot from a similar spot against Bologna. Whoever Udinese put next to Karlstrom, they must avoid giving Mandragora repeated shooting positions. Against Roma, Torino had the ball for long spells but managed only 2 shots inside the box. If the supply from the wings and Mandragora's shooting are both shut down, their attack can stall.
Udinese also have a central player to track. Ekkelenkamp has scored in both of his away league games this season and also scored at Torino last January. If he arrives late in the box after Davis receives the ball, Torino's midfielders have to deal with that run. Udinese's corners remain a scoring route too. In last May's meeting, Torino conceded their second goal from a corner. Comuzzo is expected to return and help with aerial defence this time, but with Kabasele, Abankwah and others in the mix, the risk of conceding is still there.
The game is likely to change once Davis comes off. He is the player who takes long passes, protects the ball and links to the second line. He was substituted in the 68th minute against Monza and the 76th against Lazio. His minutes need managing again today, so how Udinese advance without him is the question. Against Cagliari, Gueye replaced him, ran in behind and shot himself, but Gueye is unavailable today. Bayo and Jovanovic are mentioned as alternatives, yet we have no basis to assume they will fill the roles Davis and Gueye each played.
Around that point, Abate has tended to add attackers. At Fiorentina he moved to a back four in the 70th minute, and at Bologna he brought on Kulenovic in the 55th and made three changes in the 68th. If Adams starts on the bench, he can be used in the second half, and if he starts, Torino's two-striker spell comes earlier. Either way, his minutes are limited. If Udinese take Davis off and drop deeper while one goal up, Torino could spend longer sending more attackers and crosses into the box. If Udinese keep Kamara or Ekkelenkamp up front, they can still hit on the counter after Torino add attackers.
The meaning of this scenario depends on the first-half score. If Udinese build a two-goal lead while Davis is on the pitch, Torino need at least two goals in the second half, a hard task given their low shot output. If Torino score first, Udinese will have to hold the ball longer and attack. Udinese created many chances against Cagliari without scoring, and the player who took the most shots in that game, Gueye, is out today. So rather than simply comparing the two sides' scoring power, we should look at who scores first and which team then has to attack differently from usual.
3. Final Verdict and Conclusion
Torino are at home and Udinese have absentees, which gives some basis for a slight lean to Torino. But looking at what the absentees actually do, we do not think Udinese's first-half attack is badly weakened. Davis, Ekkelenkamp, Unai Gomez and Kamara are all expected to play. What Udinese have lost is closer to Gueye's late runs in behind and Piotrowski's shots after winning the ball. So Udinese can still score first, but once Davis goes off, they have fewer ways to extend a lead or answer a Torino reply. For that reason we see a draw as the likelier result than a Torino win.
Our predicted score is Torino 1-1 Udinese. Udinese score first, either by moving forward through Davis or by exploiting a Torino turnover at the back, and Torino pull level after the break by adding attackers. Torino's mistakes on the first pass have repeated this season, and in some games Udinese have dropped deeper after going ahead and conceded after the break. Abate has Adams back as an attacking option, while Udinese cannot use Davis for 90 minutes and are also without Gueye. After the equaliser, we think Torino's low number of shots inside the box and Udinese's thinner supply of forward substitutes will make a third goal hard to come by. That said, if Udinese get a second goal while Davis is on the pitch, Torino's second-half reaction alone would not be enough to keep this outlook.
