[2026-27 Premier League] Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal Preview and Analysis Kick-off: October 18, 15:30 (UTC)
Nottingham Forest and Arsenal meet in Matchweek 7 of the Premier League at the City Ground at 15:30 UTC on October 18 (00:30 on October 19 in Korea). Defending champions Arsenal want to keep chasing the leaders, while 17th-placed Forest need their first league win at home this season. The gap in the table is big, but Forest's direct attacking against strong sides and Arsenal's away form make this one hard to call.
1. Match Overview and Team Form
Arsenal have won 5 and lost 1 of their first 6 league games, scoring 10 and conceding 5, and sit second on 15 points. Forest have 1 win, 2 draws and 3 defeats from 6, with 5 goals scored and 8 conceded, and are 17th on 5 points. The goal tally does not tell the whole story about chance creation, though. According to AP's figures, expected goals per game over the first 6 league matches is 1.75 for Forest and 1.56 for Arsenal. Forest have not turned their chances into goals, and Opta Analyst rates the gap between their expected and actual goals as the biggest in the league.
Teams Nottingham Forest: 17th after first 6 league games, 5 points, 5 scored, 8 conceded / 0 goals scored and 2 conceded in 3 home league games this season Arsenal: 2nd after first 6 league games, 15 points, 10 scored, 5 conceded / visitors for this match, with 3 away league games so far
Forest's scoring problem has looked different depending on the venue. All 5 of their league goals this season have come away from home. In the 2-2 draw with Liverpool and the 2-1 win at Aston Villa, the opponents had more of the ball and Forest scored 2 goals in each. The opener against Liverpool came when Sels played a long ball, Igor Jesus took it and set up Morgan Gibbs-White, and Dan Ndoye finished. At home, on the other hand, Forest have held the ball for long spells without scoring. Against Coventry City they had 24 shots, only 3 on target, and 12 of them came from outside the box. That game showed how hard they find it to break down a side that sits deep.
The recent 3-1 defeat away to Crystal Palace needs to be read in terms of both attack and defence. Forest led through Ndoye's goal in the 3rd minute and kept creating close-range chances, but never extended the lead. Data centre expected goals was 2.97, yet they scored only once. They also gave Crystal Palace chances worth 2.38 expected goals and conceded in quick succession from late in the first half. Missed chances alone do not explain that defeat.
After a 3-0 defeat away to Brighton, Arsenal beat Leeds United 2-1 and Lille OSC 3-0. What both wins had in common was the change after the break. Against Leeds they conceded in the 55th minute, equalised, made 3 substitutions in the 63rd minute and went ahead in the 70th. Against Lille they scored first in the 64th minute, brought on Bukayo Saka, Martin Ødegaard and Kai Havertz in the 65th, and added 2 more goals by the 71st. That does not mean Arteta's substitutions always lead to goals, but recently the players who raise the attacking tempo after the break have had a hand in the results.
Arsenal's edge also shrinks away from home. Racing Post's league expected goal difference is +5.18 over 3 home games and +1.35 over 3 away games. Away from home they beat Aston Villa 1-0 and Sunderland 2-0, and lost 3-0 at Brighton. Forest's 3 home games without a goal cannot simply be carried over to this match either. This time they face an Arsenal side that will keep the ball, so they can expect chances similar to those in the games where they scored away from home.
The most important availability question in Forest's attack is Gibbs-White. Igor Jesus is out with a calf injury. Gibbs-White was substituted with a muscle problem against Crystal Palace and missed training during the week, so his place will be decided close to kick-off. He has been involved in 3 of Forest's 5 league goals this season, through the final pass or a penalty. If he cannot play, Callum Hudson-Odoi could play behind Delap alongside Dan Ndoye. Hudson-Odoi's runs down the flank are an attacking weapon, but there is little evidence that he can supply the central link-up play that Gibbs-White has provided in the same way.
Players Igor Jesus: status before the match, out / role that could change in the match, the front man who receives long balls and links to the second line Morgan Gibbs-White: status before the match, doubtful / role that could change in the match, central link in transitions and the final pass Nikola Milenković: status before the match, doubtful / role that could change in the match, back-three shape and defensive substitution late on Piero Hincapié: status before the match, out / role that could change in the match, Arsenal's left-back option
Oliver Glasner has kept Forest in a 3-4-2-1. While Milenković was out, he changed the defensive combination, including playing Ola Aina on the right of the back three. Milenković is back in training, but it is uncertain whether he will start or play 90 minutes. Arsenal's base shape is a 4-2-3-1, and they have used the centre-back pairing of Ezri Konsa and Gabriel even without William Saliba. Hincapié's absence reduces the left-back options to cover for Riccardo Calafiori.
The last 2 league meetings at the City Ground both finished 0-0. Arsenal had long spells of possession without scoring, and Sels' saves also played a part. The managers who led Forest in those games have both left the club, though. More important than the score of the last meeting is whether Glasner's back three can keep its spacing in front of the box today. On the calendar, Forest have had 7 days of rest since the Crystal Palace game and Arsenal 5 days since the Lille OSC game. Arsenal travel to Bayern Munich next, but they managed Saka's and Ødegaard's minutes by leaving both out of the starting line-up against Lille OSC.
2. Matchup Analysis
We expect Arsenal to have the ball and Forest to add numbers in defence and look for transitions. In that setup, Forest's home goal drought needs careful reading. Against a side that has the ball, they may not need to keep shooting from outside the box as they did against Coventry City. However, if they win the ball back deep in their own half, they have a long way to go forward. To get to a shot in a few passes as they did against Liverpool, Forest need to hold up the long ball up front and link with the next player.
The role Igor Jesus played is likely to go to Delap. If Delap can shield the ball with his back to Gabriel or Konsa, Ndoye gets time to run forward, and if Gibbs-White plays, he can also switch the direction of attack through the middle. If the first pass or the aerial contest up front is lost, Arsenal start another attack in Forest's half. Forest created several chances against Crystal Palace without Igor Jesus too. His absence alone does not mean the chances disappear, but in a game like this one, where chances are expected to be scarce, losing a link-up and finishing option matters more.
Arsenal will target the wing-backs' positions and the space in front of the back three. If Neco Williams goes forward and loses the ball, Saka on Arsenal's right can run at that flank. If Williams stays deep to stop Saka, Forest's attacking support down their left shrinks. On the other side, Eberechi Eze or Noni Madueke can take on Daniel Muñoz. When Arsenal switch the play and both wing-backs are tracking the wide attackers, the key is whether Ødegaard can receive the ball between Forest's midfield and defence.
If Havertz plays up front, the centre-backs' decisions matter. When Havertz drops deep to link play and a defender follows him out, an Arsenal attacker can use the space behind. If the defenders hold their position, Havertz may get time to link passes in the final third. Forest's back three has changed shape as they covered for absentees, so the pattern of this duel also depends on who plays in the middle and who deals with Havertz's movement.
Forest are unlikely to press Arsenal's build-up from the back for the whole game as Brighton did. Against Brighton, Arsenal struggled with man-to-man pressure and duels, but Forest's main way of attacking is to go forward directly after defending, not to keep winning the ball high up the pitch. So Arsenal may face the task of carrying the ball forward and breaking down a compact defence for longer. That is why the first goal could come late, as in the first half against Leeds United and up to the 64th minute against Lille OSC.
After that point, the substitutes' roles grow. Arteta made several changes in the 60th minute against Brighton, the 63rd against Leeds United and the 65th against Lille OSC. Madueke's crossing and runs down the flank, Gyökeres' penetrating runs and Timber's attacking support could be second-half options depending on the starting line-up. Against Coventry City, when behind, Glasner brought on Chris Wood and switched to a back four, but then struggled to keep the attacking shape. We cannot say for sure that he will make the same change today. But if he has to add a forward without Igor Jesus, he will need to adjust the attacking personnel and the existing defensive structure together.
The timing of the first goal matters too. In the 3 games this season in which Forest scored first, they conceded at least once in every one. Even if they go ahead early, they will have to withstand Arsenal's second-half pressure for a long time. If Arsenal score first and Forest add attackers, there will be chances for a second goal. If the first goal comes late, a similar tactical change leaves little time for a second. The two 0-0 draws at the City Ground also show that Arsenal's possession and substitutions alone do not guarantee goals.
3. Final Verdict and Conclusion
We expect an Arsenal away win, with a score of 0-2 or 1-2. Early on, Arsenal should have the ball while Forest protect the area in front of the box with the back three and wing-backs, so a big margin is unlikely. The more likely story is Arsenal using second-half substitutions to add wide attacks and runs in behind, and scoring first. If Forest then throw on more attackers when behind, Arsenal could get room for another goal.
In recent games, Arteta has used substitutions around the 60th minute to raise the tempo and the scoring threat. Forest's defence has changed its combination while covering absentees, and there is a case of a switch to a back four failing to work when they were behind. Forest can create chances when the opponent has the ball, but with Igor Jesus out and Gibbs-White doubtful, they have fewer ways to finish their direct attacks.
The market reflects Arsenal's superiority but is cautious about a big margin away from home. The fact that Arsenal's expected goal advantage was smaller away than at home supports that view. Where we see it differently is after the first goal. If Gibbs-White is out, Forest's central link-up weakens, and we rate it more likely that they concede again while adding attackers after Arsenal's opener. In that case we expect 0-2. If Gibbs-White plays and turns a transition that starts from a long ball into a goal, we expect 1-2. If Forest's back three keeps its spacing in front of the box after Arsenal's substitutions and Sels stops the decisive shots, even our view that Arsenal score first changes.
