[2026-27 Serie A] SS Lazio vs AC Monza Analysis Preview Kick-off: October 11, 22:00 (Korea time)
SS Lazio and AC Monza meet in Round 6 of Serie A at the Olimpico in Rome at 22:00 Korea time on October 11. It is the first league game after a three-week international break. Third-placed SS Lazio can set a club record of five wins from their first six league games with a win, while 16th-placed AC Monza are going for their first league away win of the season.
1. Match Overview and Current Form
SS Lazio are unbeaten after five league games, with four wins and one draw, eight goals scored and three conceded. AC Monza also scored eight but conceded 12, and sit on one win, one draw and three defeats. Both sides scored the same number of goals, yet the points are 13 and 4. The gap comes down to defending. SS Lazio kept a clean sheet in three games, while AC Monza conceded in every game. That said, the goals-against figures alone can't tell us how well either side defended.
First five league games Position/points: SS Lazio 3rd, 13 / AC Monza 16th, 4 Record: SS Lazio 4W 1D / AC Monza 1W 1D 3L Goals for/against: SS Lazio 8-3 / AC Monza 8-12 First-half goals for/against: SS Lazio 3-0 / AC Monza 4-7
Christos Mandas' saves did a lot to produce SS Lazio's clean sheets. In the away games at Bologna and Venezia, the opponents had the higher expected goals, yet SS Lazio won without conceding. Against Venezia in particular, Mandas saved a penalty and then dealt with several clear chances. In the three SS Lazio league games for which the data centre has expected-goals figures, the expected goals against totalled 4.16, but they actually conceded none. Three games is too small a sample to generalise to their defensive level over the whole season, but we need to consider whether Mandas will be asked to make a lot of saves again in this game.
Under Gattuso, SS Lazio have started all five league games in a 4-3-3. Rather than obsessing over possession, they move forward quickly once they win the ball back. Nuno Tavares and Mattia Zaccagni build attacks down the left, while Davide Fratesi runs into the box from behind the striker. Fratesi has scored three of their eight league goals. SS Lazio did not concede in any first half and scored five goals after the break, but all three goals they conceded also came in the second half. Against AC Milan they failed to hold a 2-0 half-time lead and drew 2-2.
AC Monza took only one point from their first four league games after promotion, but beat US Sassuolo 2-1 just before the break. That win was not the result of a defence shutting down the opposition's chances either. After AC Monza's press was bypassed in the first half, Noel Tornqvist made a string of saves, and both goals came from corner situations in the second half. Tornqvist, who made his third start in goal in five league games, is expected to start again, but we have only one game to judge whether he can keep his place.
Ivan Juric has stuck with a 3-4-2-1 all league season, using man-to-man pressing and advancing wing-backs. AC Monza have scored in all seven official games. Gustavo Varela has six goals in official games, and Riccardo Mangas has been involved in goals and chances on the left. On the other hand, against US Lecce they conceded from headers on two first-half corners, and against Udinese the goals they conceded included mistakes in build-up play and a goalkeeping error in handling the ball. Of their seven first-half league goals conceded, three each came against Udinese and US Lecce. In both games they pulled one back in the second half but gained no points.
The gap in options off the bench matters more in this game than changes in the starting line-up. SS Lazio's Nicolò Rovella is in rehab, so Reda Belahyane is expected to play as the holding midfielder. On the right, where Adam Marušić and Matteo Cancellieri are out, Romano Floriani Mussolini and Gustav Isaksen are expected to play. Albert Gudmundsson, who scored the winner in the comeback win over Udinese, is also wearing a shoulder brace and is unlikely to play. That limits the second-half attacking options Gattuso used when trailing. AC Monza captain Matteo Pessina and defender Jan Ziolkowski are also out, but they have played 0 and 14 minutes this season respectively. For AC Monza, Varela only joined team training on October 9 after returning from international duty, so how long he can play is a variable.
SS Lazio have met AC Monza six times in Serie A, with four wins and two draws. The most recent meeting, at the Olimpico in February 2025, ended 5-1 to SS Lazio. However, the managers of both teams were different then, and AC Monza have since been relegated and promoted, with their squad changing too. The current pressing and defensive responses explain this game better than past dominance. The rest periods are nearly the same, 21 and 22 days respectively, and both teams have eight days until their next league game. The schedule gives neither side a clear advantage.
2. Matchup Analysis
The most interesting duel is AC Monza's man-to-man pressing against SS Lazio's quick forward play. AC Monza follow opposing defenders to win the ball high up the pitch. If that works, SS Lazio could concede a shot straight from their own half. The short back-pass from Floriani Mussolini that was intercepted and led to a penalty against Venezia shows the risk of handling the ball at the back. If Belahyane is pressed in central midfield, SS Lazio's centre-backs will have to take on the forward passing.
Once the press is bypassed, the situation reverses. US Sassuolo got through AC Monza's press by moving a second-line player up and dropping the centre-forward back to link play. Fratesi can also drift into the space behind the striker for SS Lazio. If an AC Monza central midfielder follows him forward, Taylor and Fratesi have room to attack behind him. If Noslin starts up front, runs in behind the defence are added. If Pinamonti starts, there is more emphasis on a player who receives with his back to goal and links up with team-mates. Whoever plays, the starting point of SS Lazio's attack is whether they can play forward passes without losing the ball at the back.
The same battle continues on SS Lazio's left and AC Monza's right. Tavares, Zaccagni and Taylor are the combination behind several of SS Lazio's goals this season. Facing them is AC Monza right wing-back Samuele Birindelli, who takes the corners and gets forward readily. If AC Monza lose the ball after Birindelli pushes up, right-sided centre-back Edoardo Quadio has to deal with Zaccagni's inside movement and Tavares' forward runs. Quadio did not play during the international window, so he has gone three weeks without a competitive game. If SS Lazio win the ball and play it straight to this flank, they can create chances before AC Monza's defence is set.
AC Monza also have a spot to attack on the other side. Mangas faces Floriani Mussolini and Isaksen, who are expected to cover SS Lazio's right. Mangas has one goal and two assists in the league, finishing crosses from the opposite flank and setting up team-mates with forward passes. If AC Monza win the ball on this side and keep attacking, SS Lazio will struggle to control the game through their left-sided superiority alone. Varela holding the ball up with his back to a centre-back and finding Robinson and the other second-line players is another movement to watch. Against Udinese, SS Lazio conceded when striker Keinan Davis linked play and Jesper Karlstrom ran in from behind to finish.
Set pieces bring together different strengths and weaknesses. Against US Sassuolo, AC Monza scored twice from a corner situation: Varela's header and then a penalty won by Dany Mota. Birindelli's delivery and the aerial duels of Varela and Quadio can be used again. SS Lazio allowed Venezia seven corners, so AC Monza have reason to try this route. On the other hand, AC Monza conceded two goals defending corners against US Lecce, but SS Lazio's only set-piece goal in the league this season is one Zaccagni penalty. AC Monza's clear defensive weakness does not line up directly with SS Lazio's main way of scoring.
In the second half, the managers' substitutions could affect the outcome. In earlier games, Gattuso used substitutions to drop deeper and manage a lead. Juric made two or three changes at once in the early-to-middle part of the second half against Udinese and US Sassuolo, and the substitutes were involved in the goals. If SS Lazio lead by one goal at the midway point of the second half again, AC Monza could bring on Ungong, Zeballos, Dany Mota and others to add attacking threat. With Gudmundsson and Cancellieri out, SS Lazio have limited attacking changes to chase a second goal at that stage. But if AC Monza keep their press and wing-backs high while chasing the game, that could also give SS Lazio's left-sided attack and Fratesi more chances.
3. Final Verdict and Conclusion
We predict SS Lazio 2-2 AC Monza. Even if SS Lazio get through AC Monza's press and go ahead through Fratesi's runs and their left-sided attack, we expect AC Monza to catch up through set pieces and second-half substitutions. SS Lazio have attackers who can run in behind the opposing wing-backs, but they have fewer substitutes to go for a second goal once ahead. AC Monza can use Birindelli's delivery and Varela's heading, and they can change their attack in the second half as well. Whichever team goes ahead first, adjusting defensive positions and the height of the press may hand the opponent another chance.
The market rates a home win as more likely, based on SS Lazio's third place, their five unbeaten games, home advantage and their record in past meetings. However, Mandas' saves played a big part in SS Lazio's low goals-against, and the substitute attackers who helped the comeback win are hard to use in this game. AC Monza's set-piece attack meeting the corners SS Lazio have been giving up is also not explained by the league table alone. What would change our outlook is SS Lazio taking the lead and then scoring again before AC Monza's second-half substitutions take effect. In that case, AC Monza would push further forward to chase the game, which could give SS Lazio more counter-attacking chances.
