[2026-27 German Bundesliga] Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart preview Kick-off: October 10, 22:30 Korea time
Paderborn 07 host VfB Stuttgart at the Home Deluxe Arena at 22:30 Korea time on October 10, with both sides playing their fifth Bundesliga match. It is the first league fixture after a three-week international break. Promoted Paderborn 07 will look to build on their first win, while VfB Stuttgart, who have lost their last two league games, need a result befitting last season’s fourth-place finish.
1. Match overview and team form
The league table alone does not tell the full story of either team’s start. Paderborn 07 have four points from four matches, while VfB Stuttgart have three. Paderborn 07 failed to score in their first three games before finding the net three times against Hoffenheim last time out. VfB Stuttgart beat Cologne 4-1 but conceded seven goals combined in away matches against Bayern and Hoffenheim. Both teams have faced top sides, including Dortmund, so the points gap alone does not settle which has played better.
League record after four matches Record: Paderborn 07 1 win, 1 draw, 2 losses / VfB Stuttgart 1 win, 3 losses Goals for and against: Paderborn 07 3 for, 5 against / VfB Stuttgart 6 for, 9 against Last match: Paderborn 07 beat Hoffenheim 3-1 / VfB Stuttgart lost 0-1 to Dortmund
Paderborn 07’s first win came from a combination of defensive work and direct attacks. They let Hoffenheim have 66% possession and blocked 12 of their 22 shots with their bodies. Going forward, goalkeeper Nahuel Noll’s long goal kicks set up two goals. Marvin Pieringer held the ball up on the flank and played it to Laurin Curda, whose low cross was finished by Stefano Marino. In the second half, substitute Steffen Tigges headed in a cross. Still, Paderborn’s expected goals in that game were 0.89. Their first goal also came from a shot that took a deflection off a defender, so the three-goal haul should not be taken as evidence of an attack that can repeat that output every week.
VfB Stuttgart have kept the ball for long spells but have struggled to contain opponents’ quick attacks. They had 56% possession away to Hoffenheim, yet conceded twice after losing the ball and facing through balls. Even in their Champions League win over Viking FK, the opponent won the ball back soon after an attack broke down and scored. Against Dortmund last time out, though, Stuttgart defended well and allowed no shots on target until the 70th minute. They failed to score because their final decisions in attack were lacking. Sebastian Hoeness worked on the balance between attack and defence during the break, and how that shows up away to Paderborn will matter.
Ralf Kettemann’s Paderborn 07 use a back three and wing-backs to keep their defensive shape compact. When they move upfield, they look for Noll’s goal kicks to Pieringer or use Curda on the right after winning the ball back. Kettemann said he wants to maintain the defensive intensity from the Hoffenheim game while making better decisions in possession. He named the same starting XI against Dortmund and Hoffenheim, and we expect few changes this time. Tigges can come on during the match to hold up long balls and add an aerial threat.
The absences on both sides may have less impact on the starting line-up than the numbers suggest. Paderborn 07’s Nyamekye Awortwie-Grant, Timur Gayret, Marcel Hoffmeier and Sebastian Klaas had already been out of the recent starting XI. The back three of Jano ter Horst, Tjark Scheller and Mattes Hansen are expected to stay in place. The concern is cover in defence later in the match. Felix Götze has played only 15 league minutes this season and is the available option for a similar role. VfB Stuttgart also lack central defensive cover, including Dan-Axel Zagadou, but have more attacking options to bring on.
Dennis Seimen is expected to start in goal for VfB Stuttgart. He helped Paderborn 07 earn promotion while on loan there last season, but a thigh injury kept him out of competitive action for about two and a half months. Hoeness has said he will use Seimen as his first-choice goalkeeper. Seimen is known for his willingness to get involved in the build-up, but his only appearance since returning was 70 minutes in a friendly. He will face pressure from his former teammates and their crosses in a competitive match straight away.
The teams will meet again at the same ground in the DFB-Pokal on October 28. Their only competitive meeting in the past five years came in the 2023 cup, when VfB Stuttgart scored twice late to win 2-1. Paderborn 07 had a different coach and squad then, so that result tells us little about the teams’ current strength. The schedule is tighter for Stuttgart: they travel to Slovan Bratislava four days later. Hoeness’s comments suggest he plans to rotate for the next match rather than rest his starters against Paderborn 07. The sold-out home crowd should see Stuttgart field a team built around its regular starters.
2. Match-up analysis
We expect VfB Stuttgart to have more of the ball, with Paderborn 07 keeping their defensive shape compact. Stuttgart have had more possession than their opponents against Cologne, Hoffenheim and Dortmund, as well as in the Champions League match against Viking FK. Paderborn 07 earned points while ceding possession against Mainz and Hoffenheim. That setup does not automatically create chances for the home side. Paderborn 07 have had lower expected goals than their opponents in all four league matches and failed to register a shot on target away to Mainz and Dortmund. Their approach of conceding the ball can pay off only if the first pass after winning it reaches an attacker.
Paderborn 07 will look for openings just after playing through Stuttgart’s press with a long ball. If Pieringer can hold up one of Noll’s goal kicks, Curda and the midfielders can collect the next ball. Stuttgart have conceded after losing possession and failing to protect the defensive midfield area and the space behind their back line. That is why Hoeness said he is working on Angelo Stiller and Grischa Prömel’s cover and their response to counterattacks. If Paderborn 07 win the second ball as they did against Hoffenheim, they can send a pass or cross in from the flank before Stuttgart’s defence gets set.
Stuttgart have ways to deal with that threat. Against Dortmund, Jeff Chabot and Maximilian Mittelstädt handled several crosses aimed at Serhou Guirassy. If Chabot and Finn Jeltsch win the first aerial duel with Pieringer and Stuttgart also collect the loose ball, Paderborn 07’s attack will end quickly. Starting defensive midfielder Atakan Karazor could help Stuttgart put more emphasis on those duels, though he has yet to play in the Bundesliga this season. Prömel would offer more going forward and could get into the opposition penalty area. Hoeness’s choice in midfield will show whether he wants more bodies around one penalty area or the other.
On the flank, Mittelstädt’s forward runs will meet Curda’s response. If Mittelstädt pushes on, Stuttgart can target Paderborn 07’s right side in defence. If Paderborn 07 win the ball at that moment, Curda could have room to run in behind him. Curda’s runs on the right against Mainz and his role in Hoffenheim’s second goal showed what he can offer. Paderborn 07 need to make their first pass after winning possession count to exploit that space. If they try to play out with short passes and lose the ball in their own half, Stuttgart’s advanced forwards could get a chance straight away. Paderborn 07 conceded a similar attack after losing the ball from a high defensive line early in the Dortmund match.
At the other end, Stuttgart’s numbers in the penalty area will matter. If Mittelstädt and the right-sided players push forward and Prömel joins them in the box, Paderborn 07 will have to deal with the loose ball after blocking the first shot as well. Against Freiburg, they blocked a series of shots but failed to clear the final ball before conceding. Against Hoffenheim, they blocked 12 of 22 shots with their bodies, but Hoffenheim also hit the woodwork twice. Even if Paderborn 07 get in the way of shots, they will struggle to rely on Noll’s saves if Stuttgart keep winning the ball inside the box.
The first goal could change how both teams attack. Paderborn 07 failed to score against Freiburg and Dortmund after conceding first. If they push more players forward to chase the game, the space behind their defence will open up, giving Stuttgart’s Ermedin Demirović and El Khannouss room to make runs. On the other hand, if Paderborn 07 score first from a goal kick or set piece, they can keep numbers back and defend. Stuttgart have lost all three of their league games after conceding first this season, and they have also looked vulnerable when losing the ball after sending more players forward. The same possession advantage will mean different things depending on which side scores first.
The gap in substitutes could become more apparent after the 60th minute. Paderborn 07 can bring on Tigges to add a threat from long balls and headers. Stuttgart can make like-for-like changes up front or add another attacker to keep numbers in the box. Hansen was forced off with cramp in the 75th minute against Hoffenheim, and Paderborn 07 have limited defensive cover. Against Dortmund, they kept the deficit to one goal until the 80th minute before conceding twice late to substitutes. We cannot assume the same sequence will happen again, but Stuttgart have more scope to bring on fresh attackers and test the defence as a close game wears on.
3. Verdict and conclusion
We expect Stuttgart to take control, though Paderborn 07 have a route to score soon after winning the ball back. Stuttgart’s edge comes from their likely team selection and attacking options, as well as last season’s league finish. Hoeness is expected to start with a team built around his regulars, and Paderborn 07’s efforts to improve in possession will be tested directly by Stuttgart’s man-to-man press. If Stuttgart score first in the opening half, it will be harder for Paderborn 07 to keep numbers back and wait for counterattacks. After the break, Stuttgart’s attacking substitutes can keep testing a back three with limited cover.
The market leans towards an away win and both teams to score, reflecting Stuttgart’s largely available squad, Paderborn 07’s failure to score in their first three matches, and the recent high-scoring results between these sides. We agree with the general direction of the market, but expect a different scoring pattern. Paderborn 07’s three goals against Hoffenheim came from the opponent’s weakness against long balls and a deflected shot. If Paderborn 07 concede first and have to commit more players forward, they will find it harder to sit deep and advance through Noll’s goal kicks as they did against Hoffenheim. We therefore give more weight to Stuttgart adding another goal than to Paderborn 07 scoring while Stuttgart are ahead.
Our score prediction is 0-2 or 0-3, from the home side’s perspective. Stuttgart could score first through their press or a wide attack, then exploit the space left when Paderborn 07 push forward for an equaliser, with the away side’s forwards finding another goal after the break. Paderborn 07’s low chance creation limits the prospect of a comeback goal after conceding first, while Stuttgart’s routes into the box and attacking options off the bench support the case for a second goal. Our view would change if Paderborn 07 get through the first half without conceding and score first from a goal kick or set piece. That would force Stuttgart to commit more players forward, bringing their problems defending immediately after losing the ball back into play.
