[2026 UEFA Nations League] Switzerland vs North Macedonia Preview and Analysis Kick-off: 7 October, 03:45 KST
Switzerland and North Macedonia meet in the fourth round of UEFA Nations League League B Group 1 at the Thermoplan Arena in Lucerne at 03:45 KST on 7 October. Switzerland host the same opponents they beat 3-0 away in Skopje 10 days ago. Both managers have hinted at changes to their starting line-ups, so the key question is whether Switzerland can repeat the attacking patterns that worked in the first meeting.
1. Match overview and team form
Switzerland lead the group with three wins from three. A win here, combined with a draw between Scotland and Slovenia at the same time, would secure top spot with two matches to spare. They need the win, but not a big margin. North Macedonia earned promotion from League C in the previous edition, but have lost all three matches in this campaign, scoring no goals and conceding seven to sit bottom.
Team Switzerland: 9 points / goal difference 8-1 Slovenia: 4 points / goal difference 3-2 Scotland: 4 points / goal difference 2-3 North Macedonia: 0 points / goal difference 0-7
Switzerland’s three straight wins have come in very different circumstances. They beat North Macedonia 3-0 in the first meeting, recording 22 shots and allowing just two. Away to Scotland, they had a numerical advantage for almost 80 minutes after the hosts went down to 10 men in the 11th minute. Against Slovenia, they fought an 11-v-11 contest to the end and won 2-1, but could not add to their lead after the visitors brought on extra defenders in the second half. The first meeting is direct evidence in favour of Switzerland. Their three wins alone, though, do not guarantee another high-scoring result.
North Macedonia’s problem is that changing shape has not improved the quality of their chances. They have used a 4-4-2, a 3-4-1-2 and a 3-4-2-1 in this campaign, with possession levels varying, but have managed just one shot on target across three matches. They had 55% possession against Scotland last time out and still failed to register a shot on target. Sports Mole reported that North Macedonia had failed to score in seven matches in 2026. Their 0-0 friendlies against the Republic of Ireland and Bosnia and Herzegovina showed they can defend, but do not demonstrate that they can keep Switzerland’s attack quiet in this competition.
Switzerland manager Murat Yakin has used a 4-2-3-1 in all three matches and made few changes to his starting line-up after the opener. Remo Freuler and Ardon Jashari link play in midfield, while Zakaria Athekame and Dan Ndoye push forward on the right to create chances for Zeki Amdouni. Three of Switzerland’s eight goals in the campaign have come from set pieces. Granit Xhaka and Breel Embolo are absent from this squad, but Switzerland have won all three matches without them. The more immediate factor is Yakin’s hint that he will make three or four changes to the starting line-up. Ricardo Rodriguez and Johan Manzambi could be rested, which would change the left-footed free-kick options and the role of the player carrying the ball forward from the second line. Sacha Britschgi could make his first start, Fabian Rieder may play in the attacking midfield line, and Winsley Boteli could get more minutes, but the line-up has not been confirmed.
North Macedonia manager Goce Sedloski has also said he will give new players a chance. Central midfielder Jani Atanasov is suspended after accumulating yellow cards, while Boban Nikolov has been left out of the squad with a fitness issue. Atanasov was one of the players Sedloski brought on early when North Macedonia were trailing Scotland. Matej Gazhtarov, who has shown an ability to win the ball, and the less experienced Luka Stankovski are among the candidates to play in midfield. Local reports say left-back Ezgjan Alioski is available, although he has not played in the first three matches. It would be difficult to assume the flank will be better protected simply because he returns.
Both teams are playing again after a three-day gap. Switzerland faced Slovenia at the same Lucerne ground, while North Macedonia travelled from Skopje. The Swiss Football Association said the pitch had fallen below standard, and sections including the goal areas and parts of the penalty areas have since been relaid. Both teams like to play short passes out from the back, so they will need to be careful in possession. North Macedonia, who made mistakes building from the back in the first meeting, would have to contend with both the pitch and Switzerland’s press if they use the same approach again.
2. Match-up analysis
The key battle is down Switzerland’s right against North Macedonia’s left. In the first meeting, Athekame advanced and supplied Amdouni for two goals. North Macedonia lined up in a 4-4-2 and failed to stop Athekame from getting forward on that flank. Ndoye later helped create a goal with a low pass and cutback from the right against Scotland. The fact that Athekame, Ndoye and Amdouni have not been mentioned as possible rotation candidates makes it more likely that Switzerland will keep the same attacking route from the first match.
If North Macedonia switch to the expected back three, they can put an extra defender in the central area where Amdouni receives the ball. That alone would not solve their problem out wide. The left wing-back would have to track Athekame, and if the left-sided centre-back moves out to cover the flank, North Macedonia would have fewer players dealing with Amdouni through the middle. Against Scotland, they also used three centre-backs but repeatedly had to deal with Andrew Robertson pushing forward on the opposite flank. Whoever Sedloski fields on the left will have to prevent the full-back from advancing while keeping an eye on Amdouni in the box.
Switzerland have their own variables in attack. Manzambi has dropped deep or moved wide to get on the ball when the centre is crowded, but his minutes may need managing after a return from a knee injury. If Rieder takes his place, or Boteli plays alongside Amdouni, Switzerland’s build-up and finishing in the box will look different. If Rodriguez is rested, the starting side also loses the left-footed free-kick taker who scored directly against Scotland. But the two goals Athekame created in the first meeting did not come from an attack built around Manzambi. Rotation could affect Switzerland’s early link-up, but it would not remove their entire route to goal against North Macedonia.
North Macedonia’s progress after winning the ball back will also matter. Freuler said after the first match that North Macedonia made mistakes trying to play out from the back, and Switzerland took advantage. Scotland’s midfielders also won the ball high up the pitch in their last meeting with North Macedonia. If Sedloski sticks with short passes, Switzerland could regain possession in the opposition half and launch another attack. Mixing in long balls to Bojan Miovski would reduce the risk of losing the ball near their own goal, but North Macedonia lack midfield options to sustain the next attack. The fact that their starting forwards have yet to record a shot in this campaign makes that choice harder.
North Macedonia could pack their defence and try to keep the score at 0-0. Slovenia lined up six defenders in a row in the second half in Lucerne, and Switzerland kept possession without scoring. If North Macedonia block Switzerland’s passes down the right and Stole Dimitrievski continues to make saves, the first goal could take time. Dimitrievski made seven saves in the first meeting. Switzerland still managed 10 shots on target, though. For North Macedonia to keep a clean sheet, they will need to limit Switzerland’s chances as well as rely on their goalkeeper.
At the other end, Switzerland will need to watch for a counter immediately after their corners. Slovenia broke forward straight after a Switzerland corner and scored in the second minute. The visitors advanced before the attackers had time to recover, and Athekame was also caught out of position. If North Macedonia get a similar opening, Eljif Elmas or Enis Bardhi will need to collect the ball and drive forward quickly. North Macedonia have not turned such counter-attacks into shots on target in this campaign, though. With Atanasov and Nikolov missing, their midfield will also be tested when they try to pass the ball to their forwards after winning it.
The teams have also responded differently after taking the lead. Switzerland have kept attacking after going in front against North Macedonia and Scotland, making substitutions in the same positions. North Macedonia have made two changes together after falling behind in all three matches, but have still failed to score and then conceded again. There is no clear evidence that the substitutions caused those goals. The record does show, though, that changing forwards alone has not improved their play after conceding. If Switzerland score early, they will have time to chase a second. If the opener comes late, North Macedonia’s defence and Switzerland’s new attacking combinations could determine the margin.
3. Final view and prediction
We expect Switzerland to win. Athekame and Ndoye’s attacks down the right led directly to goals in the first meeting, and North Macedonia have struggled to contain opposing full-backs pushing forward even after changing formation. If North Macedonia try to play short from the back, Switzerland can press high. If they choose long balls, they still need to improve an attack that has produced just one shot on target in the campaign. While Sedloski reshuffles his starting line-up, Yakin is likely to keep Switzerland’s main route to goal intact.
We expect Switzerland to create an early chance down the right, with North Macedonia potentially forced into a foul and giving up a set-piece opportunity. Yakin has kept his side on the front foot after taking the lead in previous matches, so another goal is possible. The market also heavily favours Switzerland. That said, we would be cautious about backing a big winning margin. Switzerland only need to win to secure promotion, not run up the score, and resting Rodriguez and Manzambi would change the free-kick and central build-up options.
Our score prediction is 3-0 or 2-0 to Switzerland. If the home side score inside the first 30 minutes, they could keep attacking down the right as they did in the first meeting and reach three goals. If the opener comes late, North Macedonia’s defending and Dimitrievski’s saves could limit the win to two goals. This forecast would change if North Macedonia’s defence falls apart after conceding and continues to allow goals even after Switzerland lower the tempo.
