[2026 UEFA Nations League] Croatia vs Spain: Match Preview Kick-off: 7 October, 03:45 KST
Croatia and Spain meet in Split at Poljud Stadium at 03:45 KST on 7 October for their fourth League A, Group 3 match in the UEFA Nations League. Croatia need to fix their defensive shape after a 0-7 defeat to England. Spain have won all three matches in this international window and need one more point to secure the points required to reach the quarter-finals.
1. Match overview and team form
Team Spain: 3 matches, 3 wins / goal difference · points: 10-4 · 9 England: 3 matches, 2 wins, 1 loss / goal difference · points: 11-3 · 6 Croatia: 3 matches, 1 win, 2 losses / goal difference · points: 3-12 · 3 Czechia: 3 matches, 3 losses / goal difference · points: 2-7 · 0
Croatia sit third and Spain top the group. If Croatia pick up a point, they will head into the November fixtures four points clear of bottom side Czechia. This is the final match in a schedule of four games across 10 days for both teams, with their next international fixtures in November. Spain are managing each player's minutes, which will affect the starting lineup and substitutions.
Under returning coach Slaven Bilić, Croatia beat Czechia 2-1 away, then lost 1-4 away to Spain and 0-7 at home to England. The England result was the heaviest defeat in Croatia's history. Croatia made six changes to their starting XI from the Czechia game in Seville, with Josip Stanišić and Martin Baturina missing through illness. Both players and Luka Modrić returned to the lineup in Rijeka, yet Croatia still conceded seven. The absences alone cannot explain both defeats.
The goals in Rijeka reflected the chances England created. England's expected goals total was 6.14. Croatia had also posted expected goals against of 3.20 against England and 2.18 against Portugal at the previous World Cup. The problem of conceding big chances against strong opponents was not limited to one match against England. In Rijeka, a misplaced pass from Joško Gvardiol led to the opener in the eighth minute, and Croatia's two central midfielders struggled to block England's forwards as they switched positions and attacked through the middle.
The conditions are different today. The Rijeka match was played without general admission fans as a UEFA sanction, while ticket holders will be in the stands at Poljud. After Bilić promised changes following the England game, Tportal expects Croatia to add a third midfielder and move Ivan Perišić from left-back into a wide attacking role. The reported lineup also includes striker Ante Budimir. The team is not confirmed yet, but the plan appears to be to add cover in midfield and use Perišić's crossing from a higher position.
Spain have kept winning since lifting the 2026 World Cup. They are unbeaten in 41 internationals since losing to Colombia in March 2024, and have beaten England 3-2, Croatia 4-1 and Czechia 3-1 in this competition. Their defence at the World Cup, where they conceded just one goal in eight matches, should not be confused with their defending in this Nations League window. Spain have conceded once in each of their three matches after scoring first. Both the England and Croatia goals came from headers following crosses from Spain's right.
Luis de la Fuente has rotated heavily while getting goals from his substitutes in every match. Spain made nine changes from the previous game for the match against Czechia, and in Seville, Pedri and Mikel Merino came off the bench to contribute to goals against Croatia. Substitutes also played a part in Spain's final goal against Czechia. Nico Williams and Ferran Torres are out injured, and Fabián Ruiz has not joined the squad, but Spain still have midfield and forward options. Williams' absence leaves them with fewer one-on-one options to create and finish chances down the left.
Lamine Yamal's minutes need special attention. De la Fuente said no player would exceed 270 minutes across these four matches. Yamal has played about 203 minutes in the first three, which leaves roughly 70 minutes available today under that limit. He could start and come off, or begin on the bench. Gvardiol and goalkeeper Dominik Livaković have played all 270 minutes for Croatia, while Perišić has logged about 252.
The teams last met a week ago in Seville. Spain won 4-1, with Yamal scoring twice and assisting once, but Croatia also drew level for a spell when Dion Drena Beljo headed in Perišić's cross from the left. Croatia beat Spain 3-2 the last time they hosted them, in 2018, but both teams had different coaches then. For today's tactical picture, the attacking moments from Seville and the likely changes to the starting lineups are more relevant.
2. Matchup analysis
The key matchup is Croatia's left side against Spain's right. Croatia have scored two of their three goals in this competition with headers from Perišić crosses from the left. Marco Pašalić came off the bench to finish one against Czechia, and Beljo scored against Spain. If Budimir starts up front as expected and Perišić plays wide, Croatia can target the same route again. Spain also conceded from crosses delivered down their right against England and in Seville, which gives Croatia reason to keep testing that side.
That attacking approach comes with a defensive cost. While Yamal receives the ball on Spain's right, Croatia will need to decide how to support Gvardiol if Perišić stays high. If Perišić drops back to help defend, Croatia will have fewer chances to cross from advanced positions. Gvardiol played at left-back in Seville, where Yamal had two goals and an assist. Not every Spain goal can be pinned on a one-on-one between those two, but Croatia's left side will face clear pressure whenever Yamal is on the pitch. If Yamal starts on the bench, Croatia may have more room to push Perišić forward early on.
Bilić's midfield setup will be important in the centre. In Rijeka, Modrić and Mateo Kovačić played in midfield, but Croatia could not cope with England's forwards changing positions and making runs through the middle. The reported lineup for today includes Modrić, Josip Mišić and Petar Sučić. That could give Croatia an extra midfielder in front of the defence. But if Gvardiol moves to left-back, the centre-back pairing is expected to be 19-year-old Luka Vušković and Josip Šutalo. Spain created a Yamal goal in Seville with a through ball from Pedri. The question is whether Croatia's midfielders can close down the passer while their centre-backs track runners into the box.
How Croatia build from the back could shape the opening spell, too. Spain have scored first within six minutes in all three matches this window. They won the ball and scored in the second minute against England, and also scored against Czechia after regaining possession and attacking before the defence was set. Croatia conceded in the eighth minute in Rijeka after losing the ball with a pass out from the back. If Croatia lose possession while trying to play through the middle, Spain can attack the box immediately. A long ball toward Budimir would reduce the risk of losing the ball near their own goal, but Croatia's ability to sustain the attack will depend on how quickly his teammates support him.
If the game goes beyond 60 minutes, the difference in substitute options could matter. Spain can bring back Marc Cucurella, Pau Cubarsí, Marc Pubill and Mikel Oyarzabal, who all sat out the Czechia match. Spain's substitutes have contributed to decisive goals in all three matches this window. Croatia have already put heavy minutes into Gvardiol and Perišić. That does not make a late goal inevitable. Croatia's collapse in Rijeka began in the first half. Still, if the teams trade attacks early and remain level, Spain's timing of their changes could put extra pressure on Croatia's wide defending.
Croatia have ways to score after the break, too. Bilić made a triple attacking substitution in the 63rd minute against Czechia, and Pašalić came on to turn Perišić's cross into the winner. If Budimir starts today, Croatia can target aerial balls from the outset and bring on another striker later to continue down that route. Spain have conceded after taking the lead in all three matches, but they also scored again each time. Even if Croatia find a goal from a cross, they still need to stop Spain's attack straight afterwards to change the result.
3. Verdict and conclusion
Spain are the more likely winners. Croatia could respond to the problems exposed in Rijeka by adding a third midfielder and pushing Perišić into attack, but we need to see whether that setup can contain both Spain's wide combinations and their runs through the middle. Even without Williams, Spain can link up down the left through Cucurella and Álex Baena, use Pedri's through balls and bring on attacking substitutes. If Croatia have to chase the game and push forward, Spain should find more space behind the defence.
The market has rated Spain's edge more strongly after England's 0-7 win and Spain's 4-1 victory in Seville. We agree Spain should be favoured, but we would not read Croatia's 0-7 as proof that they will fail to score or collapse defensively again. With Perišić expected to move from left-back into attack, Croatia can target Spain's right with a crossing route that has already produced two goals in this competition. We expect any margin to come from the accumulated minutes on Croatia's key players and Spain's deeper bench in the second half, rather than a repeat of the Rijeka blowout.
Our score prediction is Croatia 1-3 Spain. We expect Spain to take the lead through a move down the left or an attack after winning the ball high, then Croatia to equalise with a header from a Perišić cross. A through ball or set piece should put Spain back in front, with a substitute likely to exploit Croatia's left side late on and extend the lead. Croatia's crossing route has produced goals, and Spain have responded with another goal every time they conceded in this window. The difference in their substitute options and key players' minutes also points to a late Spain goal. If Croatia change their left side around the 60th minute and hold their midfield block to the end, Spain may lose that final route to goal and the margin could stay at one.
