Both of the FIFA ASEAN Cup's last games are at Gelora Bung Karno in Jakarta, and the thread running through them is that all four teams have shown, at some point in this tournament, that they're fine without the ball. In the final that sets up awkwardly for Indonesia, who are the home side in their own stadium and will feel they have to set the pace against a Thailand team that is happy not to. In the third-place match it's the reverse problem: Malaysia and Vietnam have both spent long spells on the ball against organised defences and come away with nothing.
Indonesia didn't so much win their group as edge it. They finished level with Malaysia on seven points, same head-to-head, same goal difference, and went through only on goals scored, 11-2 against 9-0, as Dân trí laid out. Nine of those eleven came against Bangladesh. Against the two sides who could actually hurt them it was 2-0 over Singapore and a 0-0 with Malaysia, and that draw is the most telling thing they've done: down to ten from the 37th minute after Tom Haye's red card, they dropped deep, went long, and Maarten Paes plus a late goal-line block kept Malaysia out.
Thailand's first-choice side beat Pakistan 4-0 and Vietnam 2-0 without conceding, and the Vietnam game is the template to remember. Vietnam had more of the ball and more shots, plenty of them from outside the box. Thailand scored early through a Sarach Yooyen strike from distance, survived a Vietnam goal ruled out for offside after review before the break, and only made it safe in stoppage time. Then, already through, they fielded a heavily changed lineup against the Philippines and lost 1-2, with both Philippine goals coming down the same flank. I wouldn't read much into that one. It says more about Thailand's depth than about the eleven likely to start the final.
So the question I keep coming back to is who ends up carrying the game. If Indonesia push in front of their crowd and Thailand score first, it turns into the Vietnam match again, and nothing in this tournament shows Indonesia breaking down a set defence against a good side. If it stays level deep into the second half, the weight shifts the other way: Thailand aren't built to dominate possession, and the Indonesia that held Malaysia with ten men looked comfortable in exactly that kind of long, tight game.
Malaysia vs Vietnam has a stranger shape. Malaysia went 9-0 on goals in the group and still finished second, and this opponent has been a problem: Vietnam beat them 2-0 twice in August and 3-1 in March, and Malaysia didn't score in either August game. But look at what both did in their most recent tests against a real defence. Malaysia had most of the ball against ten-man Indonesia and didn't score; Vietnam had more of it against Thailand and didn't score either. Vietnam were without Nguyen Xuan Son for the Thailand game after he came off with a hamstring problem against the Philippines, so his status is worth checking rather than assuming, and Vietnam's last group game came a day after Malaysia's, so they have a little less rest.
A question for anyone who follows the region closely: are third-place games here treated as a real prize, or do coaches use them to look at fringe players? That changes how I'd read this one more than any stat.
