[2026 UEFA Nations League] Wales vs Denmark Preview Kick-off: Oct 5, 03:45 (Korea time)
Wales and Denmark meet at Cardiff City Stadium at 03:45 Korea time on Oct 5 in Matchday 4 of League A Group 4 of the UEFA Nations League. It is a rematch seven days after Denmark won 2-0 in Copenhagen. Both teams sit on 3 points, and this game matters for a top-three finish in the group.
1. Match overview and team news
Portugal lead with three wins from three, while Denmark, Norway and Wales all have one win and two defeats. If Wales finish third or higher, they will be top seeds in the December draw for the Euro 2028 qualifiers. Manager Craig Bellamy said his team's motivation is to avoid facing a Pot 1 side again. Both teams still have to play Portugal in one of their two remaining group games.
Team: Points / Goals (3 games) Portugal: 9 points / 7-3 Denmark: 3 points / 6-7 Norway: 3 points / 5-6 Wales: 3 points / 2-4
Wales lost 1-0 to Portugal and 2-0 to Denmark away, then beat Norway 2-1 in Cardiff. In the 38th minute against Norway, Louis Cumas intercepted a back pass and found Sorba Thomas, whose low cross was finished by Daniel James. That equaliser came from a high press, which was a change from the two away games. The winner, however, came from a free kick won right after a Norway defender was sent off at the start of the second half. Neco Williams scored it, but a win built on a numerical advantage does not show that Wales have rediscovered their attacking form in open play.
Over the same period Denmark lost 3-2 away to Norway, beat Wales 2-0, then lost 4-2 to Portugal. They scored two goals in each of the three games, but five of the six started with a shot, pass or free kick from Mikkel Damsgaard. The other came from a Patrick Dorgu corner. Damsgaard is out with an ankle injury, and Dorgu also left the squad after being hurt in the first game against Wales. The question for manager Brian Riemer is how to keep scoring two a game without those two.
Team: Key absentees / Roles that change in this game Wales: Harry Wilson, Joe Rodon, David Brooks / Passing and set-piece delivery, aerial defending, crossing from the flanks Denmark: Mikkel Damsgaard, Patrick Dorgu / Shooting and through balls from the number 10 area, free kicks and corners
Wales played the Norway game without these absentees. Ben Cabango replaced Joe Rodon in central defence, and Liam Cullen played in the middle behind the striker. Bellamy wants to keep that line-up, but says players' recovery means he has to change one or two places. Denmark used Mohamed Daramy in place of Dorgu against Portugal, but the central attacking-midfield pairing without Damsgaard has not started together in this camp. Viktor Prohold could take that spot, and new arrival Matthias Kvistgaarden can play on the wing or through the middle. Riemer hinted at a major change in shape but has not revealed his choices.
Denmark lead on recent results and in the head-to-head. According to the data centre, Wales have gone 4 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats in their last 14 internationals, and Denmark 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats in their last 15. Wales have lost four straight to Denmark and scored just one goal in those four games on the data centre's record. But the 2018 and 2021 games involved different managers and squads. Even in the most recent meeting on Sept 28, both Danish goals started from free kicks by Damsgaard, who is out today.
Both sides also show different records depending on the opponent. Wales scored in six of their last seven home games on the data centre's record, but never kept a clean sheet. Denmark scored 16 goals in their last seven away games, nine of them in two trips to Belarus and Greece. In the four away games against Norway, Portugal, Scotland and the Czech Republic, they scored 7 and conceded 13. Both teams can create chances, and the numbers give little reason to expect either to manage the game without conceding.
Rest is the same at three days. Wales play a second straight home game in Cardiff, while Denmark have travelled from Copenhagen. The next fixture after this one is six weeks away. Neither manager has a reason to save his starters, but Denmark are limited in their starting line-up and second-half substitutions by the 14 absentees Riemer mentioned.
2. Matchup analysis
Start with how Wales failed to keep the ball in Copenhagen. Denmark ran that game with 62% possession to Wales's 38%. After the match Bellamy said five Danish players were able to press seven Welsh players, and that the gap between Wales's front players and those behind them was too big. Even when they won the ball back, they struggled to play it forward and spent long spells defending. Denmark's two goals came from free kicks in the Welsh half in the second half.
Bellamy admitted he misjudged the approach, and against Norway went back to winning the ball high up the pitch. He said Wales must play the same way again. If Wales press like that, the key moments will be how Danish centre-backs Joachim Andersen and Oliver Provstgaard, and the midfielders in front of them, Morten Hjulmand and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, handle the ball. If Wales intercept a pass there, they can attack straight away in the Danish half, as in the equaliser against Norway. If Denmark get out of the press, they can play the ball in behind the advanced Welsh players.
Damsgaard's absence affects what happens *after* Denmark escape the press. On the second equaliser against Portugal, he took the ball in central areas and sent Rasmus Hojlund in behind to score. Against Wales, two free kicks of his started two goals. Even if Andersen and the midfielders keep the ball, Denmark need someone to turn it into a shot. Prohold or Kvistgaarden could take that role, but there is no evidence from this camp that either can supply the through balls and set-piece delivery that Damsgaard did.
Riemer's choice of shape also changes how effective the Welsh press is. If Denmark keep the 4-2-3-1 they used in this camp, Wales can press Hjulmand and Hojbjerg the moment they receive the ball. If Riemer goes with the three-man midfield he mentioned, Denmark get more passing options in the middle and can hold the ball longer, and Wales may win it back in the Danish half less often. A 4-4-2 puts a second striker next to Hojlund, but leaves fewer players in midfield for Wales to press. In any shape, who plays the final pass Damsgaard used to play will only become clear in the match.
Once Wales win the ball back, Sorba Thomas on the left is the main route. He set up Daniel James's equaliser against Norway with a low cross and also cut in from the left to shoot in the first game against Denmark. He is likely to face Rasmus Kristensen, expected at right-back for Denmark, directly. If Kristensen goes forward and Wales win the ball, Thomas and Daniel James can attack the space behind that flank. Wales should also note how Denmark conceded against Portugal, to one-twos and crosses from behind the defence. Still, whether Wales can repeat the pressing goal from the Norway game against stronger opposition rests on one game so far.
On that same flank, Denmark's Gustav Isaksen also threatens the Welsh defence. He scored once and won two free kicks in the Copenhagen game. If Welsh left-back Jay DaSilva supports Thomas's attacks and Denmark win the ball, Isaksen can run in behind him. In the box, Hojlund faces Ben Davies and Cabango. He scored twice in this camp, one a header from a corner follow-up and the other off a Damsgaard through ball. The provider of the final pass changes, but his aerial duels and finishing remain with Denmark.
The opening goal is also a variable that will shape the game. If Wales score first, Denmark have to commit more players forward, and Wales can attack in behind with the pace of Daniel James or Brennan Johnson. Denmark conceded again after equalising against both Norway and Portugal. If Denmark score first, Wales have to push up. Wales have lost all three recent competitive games in which they trailed at half-time, and in earlier home and away meetings with Denmark, in Cardiff and Amsterdam, they failed to convert early pressure and then conceded first. Denmark's attack looks different today, but the space Wales leave when they push forward is still dangerous.
3. Final verdict and conclusion
We expect a tight game in which Wales press first at home and Denmark also create counter-attacking chances. Bellamy corrected his approach from Copenhagen and brought back the Norway-game press, and Wales scored that way despite missing key players. Denmark have lost Damsgaard and Dorgu, who started all six of their goals in this camp, so they cannot use the same attacking routes. Wales's press and Thomas's left-side attacks also link to the moments when Denmark's defence conceded as the opponent pushed forward. But Wales have not kept a clean sheet in their last seven home games, and there is no basis to say they will stop Hojlund's duels in the box.
The market puts Denmark ahead, citing their first-choice defence and midfield, the earlier 2-0 win and four straight wins in the head-to-head. Our view differs on one point: Damsgaard, who started both goals in that 2-0 win, is missing, as is Dorgu, who started another of this camp's scoring routes. Wales's winner against Norway also came right after a red card and they do not usually score much, so even if they are ahead, there is little reason to expect a big margin.
If Denmark keep their usual 4-2-3-1, we expect Wales to score first with the press, Denmark to pull level through Hojlund, and Wales to edge ahead again in a tight game for a 2-1 win. If Riemer uses a three-man midfield to avoid the Welsh press and hold the ball longer, Wales get fewer chances and it moves closer to 1-1. If Prohold or Kvistgaarden replace Damsgaard with accurate passes in behind, or a new set-piece taker is as dangerous as in Copenhagen, Denmark's scoring routes come back to life and this forecast could change.
