Two different matches, one theme: defences that give away more than their attacks can make up for. In Berlin the hosts are short of bodies at the back; in Zwolle two bottom-table sides trade chances without protecting leads.
Union Berlin sit deep, hold about 42 percent of the ball and concede around two expected goals and nearly seven shots on target a game, while scoring little. Koln keep the ball more, create about 1.6 expected goals and put close to six shots on target a game. Union are missing defenders again, with Uduokhai suspended and Markgraf and Nsoki out, and Ilic and Skov are gone up front. Koln are short of forwards too, but they beat this same Union side 5-0 a few days ago with those forwards already absent. Union's route is a set piece or a counter and a home grind like the 0-0 with Dortmund, but their back line is the weaker unit. That's why I'm siding with Koln away.
Zwolle against Den Haag pairs two teams that have each conceded 23 in ten league games and allow about 1.8 expected goals a game. Neither controls possession. Den Haag are without both forwards, and Zwolle without Krastev and Floranus, yet those absences are long-running and already in the recent results, where Den Haag scored in each of their last four. One goal tends to bring another here, so I'm on the goals in this match.
