Zhejiang against Shanghai Port puts a counter-attacking home side that does not need the ball against a possession side that has been loose at the back away from home. Both defences are missing pieces for this match while both attacks stay whole. In Saudi Arabia the picture is the reverse: Ahli away keep the ball without scoring much, and Fateh's games are low on action. One of these matches points to an open game and the other to a tight one.
At home Zhejiang score early and break fast through Tolić and Mitriță. They beat Wuhan 4-1 with only about a third of the ball. They also give up a lot of shots, close to eighteen a game. Every one of their last five home games had at least five goals. Port hold the ball, and their last five away games brought fifteen goals for them and ten against, including a 6-4 and two 3-2 wins.
The main pressure point is Port's back line. Jiang Guangtai is reported out with a knee problem, so Port have a reshuffled centre-back pair facing Zhejiang's quick transitions. At the other end, Ampem, Wu Lei and Leonardo are all available against a Zhejiang block that lets opponents shoot, and Zhejiang's Park Jin-seop is reported to have a cold. If Zhejiang score early, Port have to push up and the game opens both ways. If Port score first, Zhejiang must come out. That's why I'm siding with goals in this one.
In Al-Ahsa, Ahli's home wins were early blowouts, but their last five away games produced one, one, nothing, two and one goal for them. At Kholood they had nearly seventy percent of the ball and still scored once. Fateh are winless, sit deep, barely threaten before half-time, and nine of their last ten games stayed low-scoring.
Ahli are missing goalkeeper Mendy, which gives Fateh a little more hope on the break. But Fateh have scored more than once in only one of their last ten. Ahli's Saudi internationals played a Gulf Cup final three days before this match, and an Asian away trip follows four days later. The likely result is a narrow Ahli win against a low block. That's why I'm on the low-scoring side there.
