West Ham can press the first central pass and deliver through Bowen, while Southampton can escape into their own flank and second-ball attacks. Their recent results show several ways to reach the box, with the quality of the next touch deciding how far the score moves. Utrecht have a clear left-side connection, and Zwolle bring a more direct chain through Mbayo and their central runners. Both Dutch defences have allowed chances, so the match should be shaped by how each side deals with the next entry after conceding.
West Ham's pressure through Kanté and Mukasa can put Bowen or a set-piece runner close to goal. Southampton can answer through Ward-Prowse, Jander and their wide receivers; the Norwich and Bolton matches both produced repeated box visits. West Ham's biggest recent cup score came after two early red cards, while their more comparable home attacks have needed later changes to finish. Downes and Larin face current assessments, yet Southampton made those recent entries after Downes left and with limited Jander minutes; Jander is now officially involved, and Peretz and Schlotterbeck have recent save and first-contact evidence. I expect Southampton's flank and second-ball supply to keep producing, so I'm siding with Southampton.
Utrecht's Zagre-to-Alarcón connection has produced goals, but recent score margins have outpaced the quality of many of their attempts. Zwolle can use Mbayo and Van Hooijdonk to work through the middle, with Oosting arriving again after the first shot; that chain continued in their derby comeback. Floranus left Zwolle's last match early, and Van der Haar played the replacement role and supplied an assist. Utrecht's likely wide and goalkeeper arrangement is drawn from the last match rather than a confirmed lineup, while Zwolle's Namli has returned to the travelling squad without proven starter minutes. I expect Zwolle to reach another central or far-side contact even if Utrecht scores first, so I'm siding with Zwolle.
