Two home-and-away mismatches where the stronger side controls the ball and the weaker side has very little to attack with. In both, the question is not who dominates but whether the dominance turns into a clear margin.
Villarreal host Espanyol. Villarreal create a lot, around 16 shots and nearly six on target per game at home level, while Espanyol have been without both first-choice forwards all October and manage only about three and a half shots on target. Espanyol sit deep and hope for a counter or set piece. Villarreal are missing midfield cover, with Gueye suspended and Saliba out, and a Champions League game follows, but the visitors' attack is too thin to exploit that often. Villarreal have won every listed home meeting in this fixture, the latest 4-1. That's why I'm siding with Villarreal to win comfortably.
Casa Pia against Sporting is a similar shape. Casa Pia average well under one expected goal per game, their first-choice goalkeeper is out, and they concede around two a game when pinned back. Sporting hold most of the ball and create about two expected goals, and recent home losses came with far more chances than goals, which looks like finishing variance rather than decline. Five of the last six meetings were Sporting wins by two or more. I'm siding with Sporting to win by a clear margin.
