Two J1 matches where the stronger side's attack lines up with exactly how the weaker side concedes. In Nagasaki, Hiroshima's crosses, set pieces and second balls are the three routes Nagasaki leak most, and the home side's own attack barely creates. In Saitama, Chiba's away attack is the weakest unit on the pitch, and Chiba keep conceding late, which is exactly when Urawa's bench has been deciding games.
Nagasaki vs Hiroshima first. Hiroshima are top of J1 on volume and territory: the most shots and expected goals for, the fewest against, with their goals spread across set pieces, rebounds, crosses and short passing. Nagasaki rank near the bottom for chance creation and concede mostly from crosses and set pieces. When the two styles meet, Hiroshima should keep the ball in Nagasaki's half and live in their box.
The key duel is Hiroshima's wing-backs and box runners against a Nagasaki back line that struggles with crosses. Nagasaki's best route is the press and Jonatan Junior running behind a Hiroshima back line missing Yamasaki, but their attacking bench is thin without Campbell and Emerson, so if they fall behind they have little to chase with.
The flow I expect: a tight first half while Nagasaki press with Peace Match energy, then Gaul's bench arrives around the hour as the home legs fade. That is how Hiroshima turned 0-0 half-times into clear wins against Kyoto and Verdy, and how they won here earlier this year. That's why I'm siding with Hiroshima to win this one by a margin.
Urawa vs Chiba. Urawa under Cho push play down the flanks, with Kaneko and Savio supplying crosses, and they pile up volume against deep blocks. Their weakness is at the back, but Chiba have scored only four goals in five away games and rarely test a goalkeeper even in their better home games.
Minamino is out injured, so the central finishing falls to Komori, Onaiwu, Sasa or Hidano, a group that has kept scoring in the cups. Chiba's best hope is a Suzuki or Nduka set piece, or Erison running behind a high wing-back, and then a deep block.
The late phase decides it. Chiba have conceded after the 65th minute again and again, while Urawa's bench has won games late at Mito, Toyama and against Omiya, and Urawa have not drawn a league game all season. That's why I'm siding with Urawa to take the win at home.
