This match is a slim home favourite hosting the unbeaten visitor, and the structure leans toward the visitor. Memphis win through the glass and Ty Jerome, and that route held up even without Zach Edey. Utah score plenty, but they give the ball away and concede in bulk against every opponent they have faced. Home court and a road back-to-back are the main things keeping Utah in front on paper.
Memphis outrebounded Utah 55-38 when these sides met days ago and won by 20. At Sacramento, with Edey out, Boozer and Coward pulled down 11 rebounds each and Memphis still won the boards 54-44 on the way to an 11-point win. So the rebounding edge did not depend on the big man in the one game we have seen without him.
Utah's problems are their own. They turned it over 17 or 18 times in every game, conceded 123, 119 and 132, and keep losing the middle quarters: 45 conceded in a Lakers second quarter, 38 in a Pelicans third. Memphis made only 6-8 steals in those games, so Utah lose the ball against anyone, not only against pressure.
The key matchup is Jerome against George and Peterson at the point of attack. Jerome scored 45 against Utah, then 28 and 31 since. The 45 is an outlier, but the role is real. Markkanen is Utah's counter, though he went 1 of 7 from deep against this Memphis side.
Edey is listed out and missed the last game, so the Memphis lineup that shows up has already been seen. Nurkic has been out since early October, so every Utah number already reflects their current frontcourt of Jackson Jr., Hayes and Bradley.
Expect Utah to start fast at home, as their first quarters have been strong, and then Memphis to win the middle of the game on the boards and through Jerome. The fourth quarter is where Memphis's legs on the back-to-back get tested.
The extra possessions from the glass and from Utah's turnovers are repeated against different opponents, and that is the part of this match I trust most. That's why I'm siding with Memphis, with a little protection in case Utah edge a close finish.
