In both of these matches the table and the recent results point one way while the chances each side creates tell a fuller story. Torino's recent wins came from early goals and their goalkeeper, while Monza have out-created almost everyone they have played. Malaga have conceded chances to every kind of opponent, and Alaves' winless run looks much better on content than on results. The decisive factor in each is which side keeps creating.
Torino v Monza. Abate's Torino barely build from the back: they play direct to Simeone and Adams and to Belghali's crosses, and they rely on Perri. Over ten matches they average about 11 shots for and 16 against. At Parma they won 3-0 from 9 shots to 25. Juric's Monza create every week, with at least 1.47 xG in every Serie A game with data. They out-created all three hosts they visited, and in the cup in Turin on 1 September they had eight shots on target to Torino's none.
The matchups: Torino's strikers against Monza's stand-in, man-marking back three is Torino's best route, and an early goal from it, followed by a deep block and Perri saves, is how Torino have won. In the middle, Monza's regains through Akinsanmiro and Foe Ondoa feed Varela, and Torino's midfield has leaked shots against Parma, Fiorentina and Roma. Both sides' absences carry over from their last matches, so neither picture depends on a new gap in the squad.
If Monza score first, or the game reaches half-time level, Torino have to chase, and with about three shots on target a game they struggle to do that. Monza's numbers have also tended to rise after the break. That's why I'm siding with Monza not to lose this one.
Alaves v Malaga. Over ten matches Malaga have made about 0.8 xG and conceded 1.7, allowing almost six shots on target a game, and away from home their output has dropped to around half a goal of xG. Quique's Alaves are more comfortable without the ball, but their run hides real content: 20 shots to 6 at Celta, and level on chances with Valencia and Racing.
The key duel is Alaves' wing-backs crossing to Boye and a second striker against Recio and Calero, and Funes himself flagged that danger. Malaga's official squad leaves out Pablo Martinez, their best player in the last match, and Munoz, so their link to Nino runs through Larrubia and Dotor. Malaga keep set pieces and Nino's finishing, but not much else to break with.
The first goal opens this match, and Malaga have collapsed when chasing (2-5, 0-4). That's why I'm backing Alaves at home.
