Two very different matches, both decided by who controls the ball and the late innings or possessions. In Tokyo, an unbeaten away side built on pressure faces a home team in the middle of a dense week. In Yokohama, a Japan Series Game 2 pits a deep, high-scoring lineup against an offence that has been scraping runs.
Tokyo first. Diamond Dolphins are 7-0 this season, every game on the road, with an average margin of about 17 points. Their recipe is not shooting luck: they hold opponents to roughly 69-80 points, steal around ten balls a game and force 14 to 22 turnovers, then get to the free-throw line a lot. Tokyo Sunrockers score well at home, but their own turnovers range from 9 up to 22, and this is the second leg of a week with five games in two weeks, against a Dolphins side with almost four days of rest.
The flow: Sunrockers can start fast and keep it close early, but the pressure should show in the second and third quarters when turnovers and fouls pile up. That's why I'm siding with Diamond Dolphins to win by more than a single possession.
Yokohama next. Fukuoka Hawks finished first over 143 games with a goal difference of +255, while the BayStars were third at +45. Over the last 20 the Hawks score about 5.5 a game; DeNA scores about 3.1. Moinelo is announced for the Hawks, and DeNA's bullpen used seven pitchers in Game 1, which went 11 innings before Fukuoka won.
If Ogata is short, DeNA's tired relievers have to cover the middle innings against the deeper lineup. That's why I'm siding with Fukuoka Hawks to win by two or more runs.
