Two very different shapes in this pair. In Japan, a draw-prone home side meets a team that leaks goals nearly every week. In the Netherlands, two strong attacking teams meet with their defensive and midfield cover both thinned out.
Shonan Bellmare have been unbeaten in the league since early September, but most of that run is draws, often 1-1, and their home scoring is low. Their forward line is short of options, with several forwards listed out since early October. Tochigi City sit near the bottom, have won once in their last ten and conceded two or more in seven of them. They did come back twice from behind recently, so they are not collapsing every week.
The likely flow is a patient Shonan game that turns on one goal. If Shonan score first, Tochigi have to open up and the back line tends to give more. That is why I'm siding with Shonan Bellmare, on a line that gives the stake back if the game ends level, because that is the result they produce most.
In Eindhoven, PSV have been strong at home, but they are without Mijnans and Wanner in midfield, which weakens their cover against counters. Feyenoord's back line has been missing three defenders for four straight games and has conceded in each of them, while their attack scores freely away from home. Both teams create around seventeen shots a game, and the last six meetings produced three to five goals each.
I expect PSV to hold the ball and Feyenoord to hit the channels, so chances should come at both ends. That is why I'm on the goals side in this match, on a line that gives the stake back if it finishes 2-1.
