Two matches where the steadier side has a clear way to control the game. In both, the difference comes from how each team gets its points and how well it protects the ball or the set.
Goztepe against Zeren Spor in Turkish women's volleyball: Goztepe has won its last three league games in three or four sets, and its set-point margin is clearly positive. Zeren swings between five-set wins and heavy sweeps, with sets lost by six to thirteen points in its defeats. Both sides have faced Besiktas: Goztepe won there in four sets, while Zeren lost in five at home. The main danger to a Goztepe win is a long match where Zeren's serving settles in, which is why I like the line that gives the stake back if it goes to five sets. That's why I'm siding with Goztepe at home.
Seoul Knights against KoGas in the KBL: the Knights win by pressing. They have forced around ten steals in four of their last five box scores, and one recent third quarter was built almost entirely on turnovers. KoGas has given the ball away fifteen to eighteen times in its last three games, has played three games in a week, and has less rest than the Knights. The Knights are also strong at home. KoGas has real scoring ceiling through its imports and threes, but away at a pressing side it is exposed in exactly the area where it is weakest. That's why I'm siding with the Seoul Knights.
