Two Japanese games, one decided by a strong home team's scoring and one by a slow road side meeting a tough home defence. The first looks like a leader against a struggling side; the second looks like a game that stays lower than its reputation suggests.
Alvark are first in the table with a net margin around thirteen points per game, scoring about 97 on heavy three-point volume. Seven of their eight league wins came by eleven or more, and past home meetings with Ibaraki ran between ten and twenty-four points. Ibaraki are 13th, free-throw reliant, and lose close-ish, but they also turn the ball over 15 to 20 times, which feeds Alvark's transition. Alvark's defence is average, so a cold shooting night is the way it gets close. That's why I'm siding with Alvark to win comfortably at home.
Sendai against Yokohama: Sendai's three-point shooters and Culver's recent scoring streak give them the edge, but Yokohama play slow on the road. In their last four away games they scored about 73 and conceded about 73, and Sendai at home allow around 74. Their injury absences are already inside those samples. Put together, the expected total lands well under the number, and past meetings went under in six of eight. That's why I'm on the under here.
