Both starters have shown they can keep a game close, but their recent workloads point to different paths into the late innings. Seibu's first chance is to string together contact before its fresher relief options take over. Nippon Ham's key relievers worked in both previous series games, making starter depth central to the shape of this matchup.
Hiromi Ito made eight quality starts against Seibu this season and finished his regular season with eight scoreless innings on just 85 pitches. Seibu has still scored against him in earlier meetings, so the key matchup is whether its hitters can put runners ahead of Canario or Nevin. Natsuki Takeuchi answered his September struggles with four scoreless innings in his latest start, after Nippon Ham had reached him for seven earned runs at this park. Narama and Kiyomiya homered in that meeting, with Gunji and Mizuno also contributing to the scoring chain.
Reyes appeared in both previous series games, keeping Nippon Ham's middle-order connection intact. The confirmed starters put Ito's repeated depth against Takeuchi's recent contact swings. Early traffic ahead of Nippon Ham's middle order can create a lead before Seibu calls on its fresher arms; Ito's long outings can then carry that lead deep into the game. That's why I'm siding with the Nippon Ham Fighters to win this match.
