Both of these matches come down to defensive shortages meeting sides that know how to reach the box. In one, a thin home back line faces the in-form table leader's wide attackers. In the other, two open teams with plenty of shots and a patched-up goalkeeper situation point to a game that stays alive to the end.
Sassuolo versus Lazio: Lazio sit second, unbeaten in eight and with only five goals conceded. Sassuolo are 14th, have lost four of their last five league games and are missing both Idzes and Leysen at centre-back, which has meant six goals against in their last two. Lazio's results have run a little ahead of their chance quality, since one win came with a red card and another with a missed penalty, so this is not a rout. But the wide play of Zaccagni, Isaksen and Tavares against a rebuilt back pair is the clearest edge in the match, and goals have tended to arrive late for Lazio as their bench comes on. That's why I'm siding with Lazio here, with the draw covered because a level game is the most natural way for their thin chance edge to show.
Torino versus Como: Como keep the ball and create good chances, scoring more than two a game over their last ten. Torino are direct and shoot a lot, with 25 and 17 shots in two of their last three, and they concede over a goal a game at home. Torino are without their first-choice goalkeeper, and Como's centre is thinner than before. Como's main strikers were already missing in their last win, so that absence is already in their recent form rather than fresh news. Goals have come very late for both sides, so the final phase keeps the game open. I'm leaning to plenty of goals in this one.
