Two very different cup nights, and neither looks like a clean one-sided story. One is a class gap meeting a stubborn home side that rarely goes without scoring; the other is a home side that wins tight, low-event games against a visitor that arrives short-handed and travel-worn.
Sagan Tosu are a technical, possession-minded J2 side who are strong at home: eight wins in eleven there, a goal in ten of those eleven, and plenty of corners in their last four with stats. Kawasaki Frontale are the better and deeper team, scoring in nine of their last ten, but they also concede in about six of ten and their centre-back group is thinned by squad-feed flags. Tosu's set pieces and pressing against a back line that may be rotated give them a real route to a goal, while Kawasaki's forwards give the visitors an equally real one. That's why I'm expecting goals at both ends, with Kawasaki probably a little ahead.
Persib Bandung against Melbourne Victory is a different shape. Persib lead their group with two 1-0 home wins and no goals conceded, and they play a patient, territorial game with crosses and corners. Victory have lost their captain and a starting full-back, and two more squad players stayed in Melbourne for a league game, after a long flight into Bandung's humidity. Persib's goalkeeper is out, and a short week means some rotation, but the depletion on Victory's back line and attack is official and current.
The flow should be cagey early, with Persib holding the ball and Victory sitting in a mid block and looking to counter. If Persib score first, the pattern of their recent home wins points to a narrow, controlled result. That's why I'm siding with Persib at home, and with both teams finding the net in the Tosu game.
