This is a meeting between a side that wins by volume and a side that barely creates. Gamba press high, attack directly and pile up shots, while Pohang sit deep, go long and live on set pieces and the odd counter. Gamba's dropped points this autumn came from finishing and game events, not from a lack of chances. Pohang come in with a caretaker in charge and very little attacking output in this competition.
The numbers on both halves of the matchup point the same way. Against non-J1 blocks in Asia, Gamba have produced huge shot counts, including a match against Buriram where they created chances worth nearly four goals and still only drew. Pohang's defence lets even mid-table K League sides out-shoot them by a wide margin. At the other end, Pohang managed four shots and nothing on target at Kashima, very little at home to Johor, and their only goal in this competition came from the penalty spot.
The key duel is Gamba's press against Pohang's build-up, which made errors in several recent games before they simply gave up the ball at Kashima. Pohang's real threat is dead balls from Nishiya's delivery and Wanderson running in behind, and that is the part Gamba must manage.
On absences, Gamba's long-term injuries were already missing in all their recent matches, so those rows are built without them. Welton is a fresh doubt after going off injured at the weekend, but Usami, Jebali, Meshino and Hummet have all scored recently, and a mixed Gamba eleven still created plenty against Buriram.
I expect a patient first half with Gamba on the ball, then a Pohang block that tires after the hour, as it did against Kashima and Johor. Gamba's bench can finish it late. That's why I'm siding with Gamba to win this away.
