Two Champions League Elite trips for Japanese sides, and in both the home team defends deep and hopes for a set piece. Pohang and Buriram have each just changed coach, and neither has shown much going forward against continental opposition. Gamba and Kashima both create volume and have benches that change games after the hour. The draw is a real branch in both matches, so I built around that.
Pohang vs Gamba Osaka. Pohang sit in a back five and live on routes that need no volume: a Nishiya corner, a penalty, a Wanderson finish. In open play they make almost nothing: four shots and none on target at Kashima, a tiny first-half output at home to Johor. They concede 20 or more shots regularly, often late. Kashima scored three after the 69th minute, Johor scored late, and Ulsan came back from two down. Gamba are direct and fast and produce 20+ shots against everyone, 24 at Newcastle and 24 against Buriram. Their draws come from finishing, not a lack of chances. Usami, Jebali and Mito off the bench have repeatedly changed games after the hour, which is exactly when Pohang break. Welton's thigh knock is a question, but his wing has cover. The caretaker's first match brought effort but no extra output. That's why I'm siding with Gamba, with the draw covered.
Buriram vs Kashima Antlers. Kashima have barely conceded in this competition, giving up very little in all three games, while Buriram's attack has produced almost nothing and still has no home goal against continental opposition. Buriram's real threat is a Dougall or Mancha set piece, plus Etheridge in goal, the pattern that earned a draw at Gamba. Kashima come off a tough overnight trip and will likely rotate, but a mixed side still beat Pohang 3-0 with plenty of chances. Cavric has scored off the bench in each of the last three games. Cañeda has had only four days in charge, so expect the same deep block, which tires as the game goes on. That's why I'm siding with Kashima, again with the draw covered.
