Dortmund should have sustained wide access against an Elversberg attack that has found clear chances harder to repeat away from home. Leipzig's width meets an Augsburg group with functioning forward combinations and an already-used replacement defence. The distinction in both matches is between visible scorelines and the supply that can be carried into this meeting.
Ryerson's delivery and Dortmund's midfield arrivals created repeated opportunities against Betis. Silva scored and supplied Karetsas after Guirassy had left, preserving a working central connection. Elversberg's Mainz goals included a direct free kick and an uncleared corner, while their recent away matches at Union and Leipzig produced much thinner attacking output.
Guirassy is ruled out after his thigh injury, and Sabitzer returns to the squad after illness. Elversberg's recent starting group already operated around the established absences in their squad. I expect Dortmund to have the longer attacking spells, with the visitors relying more on selected recoveries and deliveries. That's why I'm expecting a contained scoring game between Dortmund and Elversberg.
Augsburg's Rieder can release Ibrahimovic and Gregoritsch into close combinations, as their chances against Freiburg demonstrated. Those runs and deliveries test Leipzig's recovery behind advancing players, an area exposed by crosses and far-post arrivals against Manchester City. Leipzig retain their own supply through Gruda and the supporting runners.
Nusa remains a fitness doubt after leaving the City match with muscular complaints. Augsburg's Bah, Brackelmann, Banks and Mounie were already absent against Freiburg, where the replacement back three played together. With Augsburg having a full preparation week and Leipzig coming through another short turnaround, I expect the visitors to maintain an attacking response across the match. That's why I'm siding with Augsburg to keep the contest close.
