Two continental matches where only one side has shown it can create real chances in this competition. In Arkadag against Gol Gohar, the danger comes from the home side's centre-backs at set pieces, and the visitors have barely hit the target. In Pohang against Gamba Osaka, every Champions League Elite game has followed the same pattern: Gamba create a lot and Pohang get very little. In both, the side without a working attack is relying on a single moment.
Arkadag play without the ball in this competition and are fine with that. Both of their group goals came from centre-backs: Saparow against Al Muharraq, and Bashimov from Sapargulyyev's delivery at Al Jazira. In the first leg against Gol Gohar, Bashimov won eight aerial duels and hit the woodwork. Arkadag took twelve shots that day, eight of them inside the box.
Gol Gohar had most of the ball in that first leg but managed no shots on target. Their only effort on target in their other game with stats came from Alinejad, who is now out with a cold. Starting centre-back Zahedi and defender Hassani are both injured, which weakens the back line against exactly the aerial threat Arkadag rely on. The visitors also travelled about ten hours by road, and they need a win, so they will have to push forward on tired legs and leave space behind them. That's why I'm backing Arkadag at home.
In Pohang, Gamba have produced between 2.1 and 3.8 expected goals in every game in this competition, mostly from shots inside the box and with goals coming from several players. Pohang have managed between 0.17 and 1.05 and allowed at least 1.75 in every game. The caretaker coach, one match into the job, has said himself that Gamba's press against his team's build-up will decide the match. That is exactly where Pohang have been losing the ball in their own half.
Pohang have conceded six of their eight goals in this competition after half-time, and Gamba's substitutes have changed games late against Buriram, Newcastle and CAHN. Pohang's own route to a goal is a set piece or a penalty, and that's how their recent goals have come. A draw is realistic because Gamba have wasted big chances before, but a Pohang win depends on one moment. That's why I'm siding with Gamba Osaka.
